Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of...

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Autores principales:	Lora Billings, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brandon Lindley, Ira B Schwartz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d6c5e9326b704856945588b9c4d2cbd9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d6c5e9326b704856945588b9c4d2cbd92021-11-18T09:01:24ZIntervention-based stochastic disease eradication.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0070211https://doaj.org/article/d6c5e9326b704856945588b9c4d2cbd92013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23940548/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Intervention controls are typically defined on a deterministic schedule. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control.Lora BillingsLuis Mier-y-Teran-RomeroBrandon LindleyIra B SchwartzPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 8, p e70211 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lora Billings Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero Brandon Lindley Ira B Schwartz Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
description	Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Intervention controls are typically defined on a deterministic schedule. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control.
format	article
author	Lora Billings Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero Brandon Lindley Ira B Schwartz
author_facet	Lora Billings Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero Brandon Lindley Ira B Schwartz
author_sort	Lora Billings
title	Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
title_short	Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
title_full	Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
title_fullStr	Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
title_full_unstemmed	Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
title_sort	intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/d6c5e9326b704856945588b9c4d2cbd9
work_keys_str_mv	AT lorabillings interventionbasedstochasticdiseaseeradication AT luismieryteranromero interventionbasedstochasticdiseaseeradication AT brandonlindley interventionbasedstochasticdiseaseeradication AT irabschwartz interventionbasedstochasticdiseaseeradication
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Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication.

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