Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia

Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects...

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Autores principales:	Jiangyue Li, Xi Chen, Alishir Kurban, Tim Van de Voorde, Philippe De Maeyer, Chi Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Ecosystem services (ESs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Future land use simulation (FLUS) Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d6e1e4b72cff424bad2312f1a95f07d9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d6e1e4b72cff424bad2312f1a95f07d92021-12-01T04:56:11ZCoupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107936https://doaj.org/article/d6e1e4b72cff424bad2312f1a95f07d92021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21006014https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XGlobal climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021–2100) variations in water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation (−4.11% to −19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995–2015), four ESs will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive correlation (R = 0.47–0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services.Jiangyue LiXi ChenAlishir KurbanTim Van de VoordePhilippe De MaeyerChi ZhangElsevierarticleEcosystem services (ESs)Representative concentration pathways (RCPs)Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs)Future land use simulation (FLUS)Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST)EcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 129, Iss , Pp 107936- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Ecosystem services (ESs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Future land use simulation (FLUS) Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Ecosystem services (ESs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Future land use simulation (FLUS) Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) Ecology QH540-549.5 Jiangyue Li Xi Chen Alishir Kurban Tim Van de Voorde Philippe De Maeyer Chi Zhang Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
description	Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021–2100) variations in water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation (−4.11% to −19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995–2015), four ESs will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive correlation (R = 0.47–0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services.
format	article
author	Jiangyue Li Xi Chen Alishir Kurban Tim Van de Voorde Philippe De Maeyer Chi Zhang
author_facet	Jiangyue Li Xi Chen Alishir Kurban Tim Van de Voorde Philippe De Maeyer Chi Zhang
author_sort	Jiangyue Li
title	Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
title_short	Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
title_full	Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
title_fullStr	Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
title_full_unstemmed	Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
title_sort	coupled ssps-rcps scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in central asia
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d6e1e4b72cff424bad2312f1a95f07d9
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Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia

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