Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

Abstract In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emerge...

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Autores principales:	G. B. Almeida, T. N. Vilches, C. P. Ferreira, C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d74008e2e36e47c4a6c2d1ecc732e767
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d74008e2e36e47c4a6c2d1ecc732e7672021-12-02T15:00:55ZAddressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model10.1038/s41598-021-90118-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d74008e2e36e47c4a6c2d1ecc732e7672021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90118-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.G. B. AlmeidaT. N. VilchesC. P. FerreiraC. M. C. B. FortalezaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q G. B. Almeida T. N. Vilches C. P. Ferreira C. M. C. B. Fortaleza Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model
description	Abstract In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.
format	article
author	G. B. Almeida T. N. Vilches C. P. Ferreira C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
author_facet	G. B. Almeida T. N. Vilches C. P. Ferreira C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
author_sort	G. B. Almeida
title	Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model
title_short	Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model
title_full	Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model
title_fullStr	Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model
title_full_unstemmed	Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model
title_sort	addressing the covid-19 transmission in inner brazil by a mathematical model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d74008e2e36e47c4a6c2d1ecc732e767
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Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

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