Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems

Abstract Improved mobility not only contributes to more intensive human activities but also facilitates the spread of communicable disease, thus constituting a major threat to billions of urban commuters. In this study, we present a multi-city investigation of communicable diseases percolating among...

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Autores principales:	Xinwu Qian, Lijun Sun, Satish V. Ukkusuri
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d74324ea28d741a787ab4a0df2ce482d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d74324ea28d741a787ab4a0df2ce482d2021-12-02T11:02:18ZScaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems10.1038/s41598-021-83878-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d74324ea28d741a787ab4a0df2ce482d2021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83878-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Improved mobility not only contributes to more intensive human activities but also facilitates the spread of communicable disease, thus constituting a major threat to billions of urban commuters. In this study, we present a multi-city investigation of communicable diseases percolating among metro travelers. We use smart card data from three megacities in China to construct individual-level contact networks, based on which the spread of disease is modeled and studied. We observe that, though differing in urban forms, network layouts, and mobility patterns, the metro systems of the three cities share similar contact network structures. This motivates us to develop a universal generation model that captures the distributions of the number of contacts as well as the contact duration among individual travelers. This model explains how the structural properties of the metro contact network are associated with the risk level of communicable diseases. Our results highlight the vulnerability of urban mass transit systems during disease outbreaks and suggest important planning and operation strategies for mitigating the risk of communicable diseases.Xinwu QianLijun SunSatish V. UkkusuriNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xinwu Qian Lijun Sun Satish V. Ukkusuri Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
description	Abstract Improved mobility not only contributes to more intensive human activities but also facilitates the spread of communicable disease, thus constituting a major threat to billions of urban commuters. In this study, we present a multi-city investigation of communicable diseases percolating among metro travelers. We use smart card data from three megacities in China to construct individual-level contact networks, based on which the spread of disease is modeled and studied. We observe that, though differing in urban forms, network layouts, and mobility patterns, the metro systems of the three cities share similar contact network structures. This motivates us to develop a universal generation model that captures the distributions of the number of contacts as well as the contact duration among individual travelers. This model explains how the structural properties of the metro contact network are associated with the risk level of communicable diseases. Our results highlight the vulnerability of urban mass transit systems during disease outbreaks and suggest important planning and operation strategies for mitigating the risk of communicable diseases.
format	article
author	Xinwu Qian Lijun Sun Satish V. Ukkusuri
author_facet	Xinwu Qian Lijun Sun Satish V. Ukkusuri
author_sort	Xinwu Qian
title	Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
title_short	Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
title_full	Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
title_fullStr	Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
title_full_unstemmed	Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
title_sort	scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d74324ea28d741a787ab4a0df2ce482d
work_keys_str_mv	AT xinwuqian scalingofcontactnetworksforepidemicspreadinginurbantransitsystems AT lijunsun scalingofcontactnetworksforepidemicspreadinginurbantransitsystems AT satishvukkusuri scalingofcontactnetworksforepidemicspreadinginurbantransitsystems
_version_	1718396320543145984

Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems

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