Cardiovascular Events in People with Type 2 Diabetes: Performance of Framingham, UKPDS, and ADVANCE Risk Equations
Aims: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Framingham, UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS)[1], and the Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE)[2] risk equations in prediction of 4-year cardiovascular events in an Iran...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/d7538aa8a3c04b1c8ffd71fe90878f46 |
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| Sumario: | Aims: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Framingham, UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS)[1], and the Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE)[2] risk equations in prediction of 4-year cardiovascular events in an Iranian people with type 2 diabetes.
Methods: The 4-year risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD)[3] were estimated using the three equations in a community of 557 patients with type 2 diabetes and free of CVD at baseline. A trained physician evaluated all of the participants regarding occurrence of CVD event during follow up. CVD was defined as major events including fatal/ non-fatal myocardial infarction as well as fatal/non-fatal stroke, minor events including treated coronary heart disease (CHD)[4], and established peripheral arterial disease (PAD)[5].
Results: During 4 years of follow-up, 64 CVD events were observed (66% minor CVD events). Despite having a good calibration (estimated to observed ratio ranging from 91.37 to 98.2 percent, Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 (HLχ2)[6] values <15), both general (Framingham) and diabetes specific (UKPDS and ADVANCE) equations did not have adequate discriminative ability (AUC[7] ranging from 0.48 to 0.56).
Conclusions: Framingham, UKPDS, and ADVANCE risk equations, regardless of being general or diabetes specific, could not precisely predict 4-year risk of CVD in Iranian individuals with type 2 diabetes.
[1] UKPDS, UK Prospective Diabetes Study
[2] ADVANCE, Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation
[3] CVD, Cardiovascular Disease
[4] CHD, Coronary Heart Disease
[5] PAD, Peripheral Arterial Disease
[6] HLχ2, Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2
[7] AUC, Area Under the Curve |
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