Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model

Abstract We established an individual-based computer model to simulate the occurrence, infection, discovery, quarantine, and quarantine release (recovery) of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals or patients within the community. The model was used to explore the effects of control measures,...

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Autores principales:	Zuiyuan Guo, Dan Xiao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d788a28c2a814b08b4214647cc6990cf
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d788a28c2a814b08b4214647cc6990cf2021-12-02T11:39:27ZEpidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model10.1038/s41598-021-84893-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d788a28c2a814b08b4214647cc6990cf2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84893-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We established an individual-based computer model to simulate the occurrence, infection, discovery, quarantine, and quarantine release (recovery) of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals or patients within the community. The model was used to explore the effects of control measures, such as active tracing, laboratory testing, active treatment, and home quarantine on the epidemic. Considering the condition that R 0 = 1.2, when a case of an imported asymptomatic infected individual (AII) was reported in the community, the implementation of control measures reduced the number of AIIs and patients by 62.2% and 62.4%, respectively. The number of undetected AIIs and patients peaked at 302 days of the epidemic, reaching 53 and 20 individuals, respectively. The implementation of sustained active tracing, laboratory testing, active treatment, and home quarantine can significantly reduce the probability of disease outbreaks and block the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by AIIs in the community.Zuiyuan GuoDan XiaoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Zuiyuan Guo Dan Xiao Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
description	Abstract We established an individual-based computer model to simulate the occurrence, infection, discovery, quarantine, and quarantine release (recovery) of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals or patients within the community. The model was used to explore the effects of control measures, such as active tracing, laboratory testing, active treatment, and home quarantine on the epidemic. Considering the condition that R 0 = 1.2, when a case of an imported asymptomatic infected individual (AII) was reported in the community, the implementation of control measures reduced the number of AIIs and patients by 62.2% and 62.4%, respectively. The number of undetected AIIs and patients peaked at 302 days of the epidemic, reaching 53 and 20 individuals, respectively. The implementation of sustained active tracing, laboratory testing, active treatment, and home quarantine can significantly reduce the probability of disease outbreaks and block the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by AIIs in the community.
format	article
author	Zuiyuan Guo Dan Xiao
author_facet	Zuiyuan Guo Dan Xiao
author_sort	Zuiyuan Guo
title	Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
title_short	Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
title_full	Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
title_fullStr	Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
title_full_unstemmed	Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
title_sort	epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic sars-cov-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d788a28c2a814b08b4214647cc6990cf
work_keys_str_mv	AT zuiyuanguo epidemiologicalanalysisofasymptomaticsarscov2transmissioninthecommunityanindividualbasedmodel AT danxiao epidemiologicalanalysisofasymptomaticsarscov2transmissioninthecommunityanindividualbasedmodel
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Epidemiological analysis of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community: an individual-based model

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