Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin

Floods are often caused by short-term heavy rainfall. An Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is good at runoff simulation and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is good at learning massive data and realizing rainfall forecast. In this paper, the applicability of the IFAS model to runoff...

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Autores principales:	Yue-Chao Chen, Jia-Jia Gao, Zhao-Hui Bin, Jia-Zhong Qian, Rui-Liang Pei, Hua Zhu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	flood prediction ifas model lstm model rainfall and runoff simulation tokachi river basin Information technology T58.5-58.64 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d7a6a546d17a464dbe2282f9e8308b26
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d7a6a546d17a464dbe2282f9e8308b262021-11-05T17:51:31ZApplication study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin1464-71411465-173410.2166/hydro.2021.035https://doaj.org/article/d7a6a546d17a464dbe2282f9e8308b262021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jh.iwaponline.com/content/23/5/1098https://doaj.org/toc/1464-7141https://doaj.org/toc/1465-1734Floods are often caused by short-term heavy rainfall. An Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is good at runoff simulation and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is good at learning massive data and realizing rainfall forecast. In this paper, the applicability of the IFAS model to runoff simulation in the Tokachi River basin and the LSTM model to forecast hourly rainfall was studied, and the accuracy of flood prediction was also studied by inputting the optimal rainfall data forecasted by the LSTM model into the IFAS model. The research results show that the IFAS model can accurately simulate the runoff process in the Tokachi River basin. In the calibration period and the verification period, the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) of all simulation results are above 0.75; the LSTM model can achieve forecast hourly rainfall with high precision, the NSE of best forecast results is 0.86; the IFAS model can achieve flood prediction with high precision by using the optimal rainfall data forecasted by the LSTM model, the NSE of simulation result is 0.81. The above conclusions show that it is of great significance to combine the hourly rainfall forecasted by the LSTM model with the IFAS model for flood prediction. HIGHLIGHTS The Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model can accurately simulate runoff in the Tokachi River basin.; The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model can achieve high-precision hourly rainfall forecast.; The combination of the optimal hourly rainfall predicted by the LSTM model and the calibrated IFAS model can achieve high-precision runoff simulation, which makes a beneficial exploration for the realization of flood forecasting.;Yue-Chao ChenJia-Jia GaoZhao-Hui BinJia-Zhong QianRui-Liang PeiHua ZhuIWA Publishingarticleflood predictionifas modellstm modelrainfall and runoff simulationtokachi river basinInformation technologyT58.5-58.64Environmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066ENJournal of Hydroinformatics, Vol 23, Iss 5, Pp 1098-1111 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	flood prediction ifas model lstm model rainfall and runoff simulation tokachi river basin Information technology T58.5-58.64 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
spellingShingle	flood prediction ifas model lstm model rainfall and runoff simulation tokachi river basin Information technology T58.5-58.64 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Yue-Chao Chen Jia-Jia Gao Zhao-Hui Bin Jia-Zhong Qian Rui-Liang Pei Hua Zhu Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin
description	Floods are often caused by short-term heavy rainfall. An Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is good at runoff simulation and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is good at learning massive data and realizing rainfall forecast. In this paper, the applicability of the IFAS model to runoff simulation in the Tokachi River basin and the LSTM model to forecast hourly rainfall was studied, and the accuracy of flood prediction was also studied by inputting the optimal rainfall data forecasted by the LSTM model into the IFAS model. The research results show that the IFAS model can accurately simulate the runoff process in the Tokachi River basin. In the calibration period and the verification period, the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) of all simulation results are above 0.75; the LSTM model can achieve forecast hourly rainfall with high precision, the NSE of best forecast results is 0.86; the IFAS model can achieve flood prediction with high precision by using the optimal rainfall data forecasted by the LSTM model, the NSE of simulation result is 0.81. The above conclusions show that it is of great significance to combine the hourly rainfall forecasted by the LSTM model with the IFAS model for flood prediction. HIGHLIGHTS The Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model can accurately simulate runoff in the Tokachi River basin.; The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model can achieve high-precision hourly rainfall forecast.; The combination of the optimal hourly rainfall predicted by the LSTM model and the calibrated IFAS model can achieve high-precision runoff simulation, which makes a beneficial exploration for the realization of flood forecasting.;
format	article
author	Yue-Chao Chen Jia-Jia Gao Zhao-Hui Bin Jia-Zhong Qian Rui-Liang Pei Hua Zhu
author_facet	Yue-Chao Chen Jia-Jia Gao Zhao-Hui Bin Jia-Zhong Qian Rui-Liang Pei Hua Zhu
author_sort	Yue-Chao Chen
title	Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin
title_short	Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin
title_full	Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin
title_fullStr	Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin
title_full_unstemmed	Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin
title_sort	application study of ifas and lstm models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the tokachi river basin
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d7a6a546d17a464dbe2282f9e8308b26
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Application study of IFAS and LSTM models on runoff simulation and flood prediction in the Tokachi River basin

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