Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin

The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question...

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Autores principales:	Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh, Alireza Massah Bavani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change downscaling neva software non-stationary vic model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d7a9ac05e6aa4b559ba5ec714b245af2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d7a9ac05e6aa4b559ba5ec714b245af22021-11-05T19:02:10ZDaily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.074https://doaj.org/article/d7a9ac05e6aa4b559ba5ec714b245af22021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/1910https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question as to whether there is a difference between estimating the return period of maximum instantaneous flood in stationary and non-stationary conditions. First, the values of the temperature, wind speed, and rainfall of the study area under the two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 of the Hadley Centre coupled Model, version3 (HadCM3) model were downscaled. In the following, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was utilized to generate daily runoff. For converting the daily discharge to the maximum instantaneous flood, four methods of Fuller, Sangal, Fill Steiner, and artificial neural network (ANN) were compared. Finally, the maximum instantaneous floods of the future period were introduced to the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software. Based on the results obtained from the research, the lack of considering the non-stationary conditions in the flood frequency analysis can result in underestimating the maximum instantaneous flood, which can also provide more risks for the related hydraulic structures. HIGHLIGHTS The temperature will increase and rainfall will reduce in the future.; The results of the VIC model represent that the daily runoff in the future period will reduce compared to the past periods.; The maximum instantaneous floods under the stationary assumption are smaller than the maximum instantaneous floods under the non-stationary assumption; this difference increases by expanding the return period.;Nazanin Sadeghi LoyehAlireza Massah BavaniIWA Publishingarticleclimate changedownscalingneva softwarenon-stationaryvic modelEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 1910-1929 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change downscaling neva software non-stationary vic model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change downscaling neva software non-stationary vic model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh Alireza Massah Bavani Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
description	The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question as to whether there is a difference between estimating the return period of maximum instantaneous flood in stationary and non-stationary conditions. First, the values of the temperature, wind speed, and rainfall of the study area under the two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 of the Hadley Centre coupled Model, version3 (HadCM3) model were downscaled. In the following, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was utilized to generate daily runoff. For converting the daily discharge to the maximum instantaneous flood, four methods of Fuller, Sangal, Fill Steiner, and artificial neural network (ANN) were compared. Finally, the maximum instantaneous floods of the future period were introduced to the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software. Based on the results obtained from the research, the lack of considering the non-stationary conditions in the flood frequency analysis can result in underestimating the maximum instantaneous flood, which can also provide more risks for the related hydraulic structures. HIGHLIGHTS The temperature will increase and rainfall will reduce in the future.; The results of the VIC model represent that the daily runoff in the future period will reduce compared to the past periods.; The maximum instantaneous floods under the stationary assumption are smaller than the maximum instantaneous floods under the non-stationary assumption; this difference increases by expanding the return period.;
format	article
author	Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh Alireza Massah Bavani
author_facet	Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh Alireza Massah Bavani
author_sort	Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh
title	Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
title_short	Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
title_full	Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
title_fullStr	Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
title_full_unstemmed	Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
title_sort	daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: case study ghareh sou basin
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d7a9ac05e6aa4b559ba5ec714b245af2
work_keys_str_mv	AT nazaninsadeghiloyeh dailymaximumrunofffrequencyanalysisundernonstationaryconditionsduetoclimatechangeinthefutureperiodcasestudygharehsoubasin AT alirezamassahbavani dailymaximumrunofffrequencyanalysisundernonstationaryconditionsduetoclimatechangeinthefutureperiodcasestudygharehsoubasin
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Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin

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