Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate

Abstract We quantify long-run adaptation of U.S. corn and soybean yields to changes in temperature and precipitation over 1951–2017. Results show that although the two crops became more heat- and drought-tolerant, their productivity under normal temperature and precipitation conditions decreased. Ov...

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Autores principales:	Chengzheng Yu, Ruiqing Miao, Madhu Khanna
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d7c7d1ac0ab6481ab57541a51afa9ca7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d7c7d1ac0ab6481ab57541a51afa9ca72021-12-02T14:59:37ZMaladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate10.1038/s41598-021-91192-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d7c7d1ac0ab6481ab57541a51afa9ca72021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91192-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We quantify long-run adaptation of U.S. corn and soybean yields to changes in temperature and precipitation over 1951–2017. Results show that although the two crops became more heat- and drought-tolerant, their productivity under normal temperature and precipitation conditions decreased. Over 1951–2017, heat- and drought-tolerance increased corn and soybean yields by 33% and 20%, whereas maladaptation to normal conditions reduced yields by 41% and 87%, respectively, with large spatial variations in effects. Changes in climate are projected to reduce average corn and soybean yields by 39–68% and 86–92%, respectively, by 2050 relative to 2013–2017 depending on the warming scenario. After incorporating estimated effects of climate-neutral technological advances, the net change in yield ranges from (−)13 to 62% for corn and (−)57 to (−)26% for soybeans in 2050 relative to 2013–2017. Our analysis uncovers the inherent trade-offs and limitations of existing approaches to crop adaptation.Chengzheng YuRuiqing MiaoMadhu KhannaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Chengzheng Yu Ruiqing Miao Madhu Khanna Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
description	Abstract We quantify long-run adaptation of U.S. corn and soybean yields to changes in temperature and precipitation over 1951–2017. Results show that although the two crops became more heat- and drought-tolerant, their productivity under normal temperature and precipitation conditions decreased. Over 1951–2017, heat- and drought-tolerance increased corn and soybean yields by 33% and 20%, whereas maladaptation to normal conditions reduced yields by 41% and 87%, respectively, with large spatial variations in effects. Changes in climate are projected to reduce average corn and soybean yields by 39–68% and 86–92%, respectively, by 2050 relative to 2013–2017 depending on the warming scenario. After incorporating estimated effects of climate-neutral technological advances, the net change in yield ranges from (−)13 to 62% for corn and (−)57 to (−)26% for soybeans in 2050 relative to 2013–2017. Our analysis uncovers the inherent trade-offs and limitations of existing approaches to crop adaptation.
format	article
author	Chengzheng Yu Ruiqing Miao Madhu Khanna
author_facet	Chengzheng Yu Ruiqing Miao Madhu Khanna
author_sort	Chengzheng Yu
title	Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
title_short	Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
title_full	Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
title_fullStr	Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
title_full_unstemmed	Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
title_sort	maladaptation of u.s. corn and soybeans to a changing climate
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d7c7d1ac0ab6481ab57541a51afa9ca7
work_keys_str_mv	AT chengzhengyu maladaptationofuscornandsoybeanstoachangingclimate AT ruiqingmiao maladaptationofuscornandsoybeanstoachangingclimate AT madhukhanna maladaptationofuscornandsoybeanstoachangingclimate
_version_	1718389231844327424

Maladaptation of U.S. corn and soybeans to a changing climate

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