An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling

Abstract Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Timothy Thrippleton, Lisa Hülsmann, Maxime Cailleret, Harald Bugmann
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:
R
Q
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/d80e48bdb373425abacc97ab427f46ba
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
Descripción
Sumario:Abstract Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple species. We analysed empirical MAs for a suite of European tree species within a consistent DVM framework under present and future climates in two climatically different study areas in Switzerland and evaluated their performance using empirical data from old-growth forests across Europe. DVM projections under present climate showed substantial variations when using alternative empirical MAs for the same species. Under climate change, DVM projections showed partly contrasting mortality responses for the same species. These opposing patterns were associated with MA structures (i.e. explanatory variables) and occurred independent of species ecological characteristics. When comparing simulated forest structure with data from old-growth forests, we found frequent overestimations of basal area, which can lead to flawed projections of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. While using empirical MAs in DVMs may appear promising, our results emphasize the importance of selecting them cautiously. We therefore synthesize our insights into a guideline for the appropriate use of empirical MAs in DVM applications.