An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling

Abstract Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple...

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Autores principales:	Timothy Thrippleton, Lisa Hülsmann, Maxime Cailleret, Harald Bugmann
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d80e48bdb373425abacc97ab427f46ba
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d80e48bdb373425abacc97ab427f46ba2021-12-02T18:09:03ZAn evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling10.1038/s41598-021-98880-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d80e48bdb373425abacc97ab427f46ba2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98880-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple species. We analysed empirical MAs for a suite of European tree species within a consistent DVM framework under present and future climates in two climatically different study areas in Switzerland and evaluated their performance using empirical data from old-growth forests across Europe. DVM projections under present climate showed substantial variations when using alternative empirical MAs for the same species. Under climate change, DVM projections showed partly contrasting mortality responses for the same species. These opposing patterns were associated with MA structures (i.e. explanatory variables) and occurred independent of species ecological characteristics. When comparing simulated forest structure with data from old-growth forests, we found frequent overestimations of basal area, which can lead to flawed projections of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. While using empirical MAs in DVMs may appear promising, our results emphasize the importance of selecting them cautiously. We therefore synthesize our insights into a guideline for the appropriate use of empirical MAs in DVM applications.Timothy ThrippletonLisa HülsmannMaxime CailleretHarald BugmannNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Timothy Thrippleton Lisa Hülsmann Maxime Cailleret Harald Bugmann An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
description	Abstract Tree mortality is key for projecting forest dynamics, but difficult to portray in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Empirical mortality algorithms (MAs) are often considered promising, but little is known about DVM robustness when employing MAs of various structures and origins for multiple species. We analysed empirical MAs for a suite of European tree species within a consistent DVM framework under present and future climates in two climatically different study areas in Switzerland and evaluated their performance using empirical data from old-growth forests across Europe. DVM projections under present climate showed substantial variations when using alternative empirical MAs for the same species. Under climate change, DVM projections showed partly contrasting mortality responses for the same species. These opposing patterns were associated with MA structures (i.e. explanatory variables) and occurred independent of species ecological characteristics. When comparing simulated forest structure with data from old-growth forests, we found frequent overestimations of basal area, which can lead to flawed projections of carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. While using empirical MAs in DVMs may appear promising, our results emphasize the importance of selecting them cautiously. We therefore synthesize our insights into a guideline for the appropriate use of empirical MAs in DVM applications.
format	article
author	Timothy Thrippleton Lisa Hülsmann Maxime Cailleret Harald Bugmann
author_facet	Timothy Thrippleton Lisa Hülsmann Maxime Cailleret Harald Bugmann
author_sort	Timothy Thrippleton
title	An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
title_short	An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
title_full	An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
title_fullStr	An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
title_full_unstemmed	An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
title_sort	evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d80e48bdb373425abacc97ab427f46ba
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An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling

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