Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow

Abstract Risk management of nonstationary floods depends on an understanding of trends over a range of flood frequencies representing small (frequent) to large (infrequent) floods. Quantile regression is applied to the annual peak streamflow distributions at 2683 sites in the contiguous United State...

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Autores principales:	Christopher Konrad, Daniel Restivo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Wiley 2021
Materias:	hydrology risk analysis statistical methods River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d8342cc7eed94a48bddba7380fe01074
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d8342cc7eed94a48bddba7380fe010742021-11-11T05:32:10ZAssessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow1753-318X10.1111/jfr3.12761https://doaj.org/article/d8342cc7eed94a48bddba7380fe010742021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12761https://doaj.org/toc/1753-318XAbstract Risk management of nonstationary floods depends on an understanding of trends over a range of flood frequencies representing small (frequent) to large (infrequent) floods. Quantile regression is applied to the annual peak streamflow distributions at 2683 sites in the contiguous United States to test for trends in the 10th quantile (floods with a 0.9 annual exceedance probability), the 50th quantile (median annual flood), and 90th quantile (floods with a 0.1 annual exceedance probability). Trends are most common (36% of sites) for the median annual flood (50th quantile) and often coherent with trends in both frequent small floods (10th quantile) and infrequent large floods (90th quantile). Changes in the at‐site variance of annual peak streamflow, indicated by convergence (decreasing variance) or divergence (increasing variance) of the 10th and 90th quantiles over time, are primarily in response to reservoir operation or urban development rather than climate. An analysis of synthetic series generated from nonstationary distributions demonstrates that quantile regression and standard trend tests used in flood frequency analysis have limited power and high rates of false negatives (>70%) when a test has a significance of p = 0.05. Quantile regression and tests with lower significance complement standard trend testing to inform flood risk management.Christopher KonradDaniel RestivoWileyarticlehydrologyrisk analysisstatistical methodsRiver protective works. Regulation. Flood controlTC530-537Disasters and engineeringTA495ENJournal of Flood Risk Management, Vol 14, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	hydrology risk analysis statistical methods River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495
spellingShingle	hydrology risk analysis statistical methods River protective works. Regulation. Flood control TC530-537 Disasters and engineering TA495 Christopher Konrad Daniel Restivo Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
description	Abstract Risk management of nonstationary floods depends on an understanding of trends over a range of flood frequencies representing small (frequent) to large (infrequent) floods. Quantile regression is applied to the annual peak streamflow distributions at 2683 sites in the contiguous United States to test for trends in the 10th quantile (floods with a 0.9 annual exceedance probability), the 50th quantile (median annual flood), and 90th quantile (floods with a 0.1 annual exceedance probability). Trends are most common (36% of sites) for the median annual flood (50th quantile) and often coherent with trends in both frequent small floods (10th quantile) and infrequent large floods (90th quantile). Changes in the at‐site variance of annual peak streamflow, indicated by convergence (decreasing variance) or divergence (increasing variance) of the 10th and 90th quantiles over time, are primarily in response to reservoir operation or urban development rather than climate. An analysis of synthetic series generated from nonstationary distributions demonstrates that quantile regression and standard trend tests used in flood frequency analysis have limited power and high rates of false negatives (>70%) when a test has a significance of p = 0.05. Quantile regression and tests with lower significance complement standard trend testing to inform flood risk management.
format	article
author	Christopher Konrad Daniel Restivo
author_facet	Christopher Konrad Daniel Restivo
author_sort	Christopher Konrad
title	Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
title_short	Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
title_full	Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
title_fullStr	Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
title_sort	assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow
publisher	Wiley
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d8342cc7eed94a48bddba7380fe01074
work_keys_str_mv	AT christopherkonrad assessmentandsignificanceofthefrequencydomainfortrendsinannualpeakstreamflow AT danielrestivo assessmentandsignificanceofthefrequencydomainfortrendsinannualpeakstreamflow
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Assessment and significance of the frequency domain for trends in annual peak streamflow

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