Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption

In 2019, natural gas accounted for 25.4% of gross inland consumption in the European Union (EU), making it one of the most important energy sources in the EU. The importance of natural gas, together with the ongoing liberalization of the gas market, has made the natural gas sector significantly comm...

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Autores principales:	Ivan Smajla, Daria Karasalihović Sedlar, Domagoj Vulin, Lucija Jukić
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Natural gas consumption Forecasting methods Input parameters Smart metering Simulation Lognormal distribution Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering TK1-9971
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d89d931886bf4bf0ae2afc0b3fa26174
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:d89d931886bf4bf0ae2afc0b3fa26174
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d89d931886bf4bf0ae2afc0b3fa261742021-11-28T04:33:45ZInfluence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption2352-484710.1016/j.egyr.2021.06.014https://doaj.org/article/d89d931886bf4bf0ae2afc0b3fa261742021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484721003760https://doaj.org/toc/2352-4847In 2019, natural gas accounted for 25.4% of gross inland consumption in the European Union (EU), making it one of the most important energy sources in the EU. The importance of natural gas, together with the ongoing liberalization of the gas market, has made the natural gas sector significantly commercially sensitive. To reduce the risk of financial losses, balance group managers often need to have an accurate forecast of natural gas consumption. An accurate forecast will ensure small deviations between actual gas consumption and reserved gas volumes and transmission system capacity resulting in less balancing energy required, which is sold at a higher price in the final balancing process.This paper researches the optimal number of smart meters and best fitted consumption data distribution in order to achieve satisfactory results in terms of the accuracy by using simple forecasting methods. Beside mentioned, this paper provides accuracy overview of various already available forecasting methods, as well as the selection of input parameters for forecasting short term natural gas consumption. Using the calculated linear temperature dependence together with the lognormal distribution, the consumption of natural gas was simulated for 12 different cases. The simulation showed that, if more than 10 000 smart meters were installed, deviation between average estimated natural gas consumption and the real data would be less than ±2.96 %. In case of 100 000 smart meters installed, deviation would be less than ±1.20 %, but the “large” partly temperature independent consumers must be disregarded.Ivan SmajlaDaria Karasalihović SedlarDomagoj VulinLucija JukićElsevierarticleNatural gas consumptionForecasting methodsInput parametersSmart meteringSimulationLognormal distributionElectrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineeringTK1-9971ENEnergy Reports, Vol 7, Iss , Pp 8287-8297 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Natural gas consumption Forecasting methods Input parameters Smart metering Simulation Lognormal distribution Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering TK1-9971
spellingShingle	Natural gas consumption Forecasting methods Input parameters Smart metering Simulation Lognormal distribution Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering TK1-9971 Ivan Smajla Daria Karasalihović Sedlar Domagoj Vulin Lucija Jukić Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
description	In 2019, natural gas accounted for 25.4% of gross inland consumption in the European Union (EU), making it one of the most important energy sources in the EU. The importance of natural gas, together with the ongoing liberalization of the gas market, has made the natural gas sector significantly commercially sensitive. To reduce the risk of financial losses, balance group managers often need to have an accurate forecast of natural gas consumption. An accurate forecast will ensure small deviations between actual gas consumption and reserved gas volumes and transmission system capacity resulting in less balancing energy required, which is sold at a higher price in the final balancing process.This paper researches the optimal number of smart meters and best fitted consumption data distribution in order to achieve satisfactory results in terms of the accuracy by using simple forecasting methods. Beside mentioned, this paper provides accuracy overview of various already available forecasting methods, as well as the selection of input parameters for forecasting short term natural gas consumption. Using the calculated linear temperature dependence together with the lognormal distribution, the consumption of natural gas was simulated for 12 different cases. The simulation showed that, if more than 10 000 smart meters were installed, deviation between average estimated natural gas consumption and the real data would be less than ±2.96 %. In case of 100 000 smart meters installed, deviation would be less than ±1.20 %, but the “large” partly temperature independent consumers must be disregarded.
format	article
author	Ivan Smajla Daria Karasalihović Sedlar Domagoj Vulin Lucija Jukić
author_facet	Ivan Smajla Daria Karasalihović Sedlar Domagoj Vulin Lucija Jukić
author_sort	Ivan Smajla
title	Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
title_short	Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
title_full	Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
title_fullStr	Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
title_full_unstemmed	Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
title_sort	influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d89d931886bf4bf0ae2afc0b3fa26174
work_keys_str_mv	AT ivansmajla influenceofsmartmetersontheaccuracyofmethodsforforecastingnaturalgasconsumption AT dariakarasalihovicsedlar influenceofsmartmetersontheaccuracyofmethodsforforecastingnaturalgasconsumption AT domagojvulin influenceofsmartmetersontheaccuracyofmethodsforforecastingnaturalgasconsumption AT lucijajukic influenceofsmartmetersontheaccuracyofmethodsforforecastingnaturalgasconsumption
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Influence of smart meters on the accuracy of methods for forecasting natural gas consumption

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