Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.

In hydrological modelling, a good result for the criterion of goodness of fit does not always imply that the hypothesis of mass conservation is fulfilled, and models can lose their essential physical soundness. We propose a way for detecting this anomaly by accounting the resulting water balance dur...

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Autores principales:	Francisco Pellicer-Martínez, Francisco Gomariz-Castillo, María Manuela Portela, Isabel María Martínez-Alcalá, José Miguel Martínez-Paz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d9a8f592d8784e0fbb3eb6b7a95806f6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d9a8f592d8784e0fbb3eb6b7a95806f62021-12-02T20:12:42ZModulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0260117https://doaj.org/article/d9a8f592d8784e0fbb3eb6b7a95806f62021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260117https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203In hydrological modelling, a good result for the criterion of goodness of fit does not always imply that the hypothesis of mass conservation is fulfilled, and models can lose their essential physical soundness. We propose a way for detecting this anomaly by accounting the resulting water balance during model simulation and use it to modulate the obtained goodness of fit. We call this anomaly in water balance as "inner balance error of the model". To modulate the goodness of fit values, a penalty function that depends on this error is proposed. In addition, this penalty function is introduced into a multi-criteria objective function, which is also tested. This procedure was followed in modelling the Headwater of the Tagus River (Spain), applying the monthly abcd water balance model. Modulation of the goodness of fit allowed for detecting balance errors in the modelling, revealing that in the simulation of some catchments the model tends to accumulate water in, or release water from, the reservoir that simulates groundwater storage. Although the proposed multi-criteria objective function solves the inner balance error for most catchments, in some cases the error cannot be corrected, indicating that any error in the input and output data is probably related to groundwater flows.Francisco Pellicer-MartínezFrancisco Gomariz-CastilloMaría Manuela PortelaIsabel María Martínez-AlcaláJosé Miguel Martínez-PazPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11, p e0260117 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Francisco Pellicer-Martínez Francisco Gomariz-Castillo María Manuela Portela Isabel María Martínez-Alcalá José Miguel Martínez-Paz Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
description	In hydrological modelling, a good result for the criterion of goodness of fit does not always imply that the hypothesis of mass conservation is fulfilled, and models can lose their essential physical soundness. We propose a way for detecting this anomaly by accounting the resulting water balance during model simulation and use it to modulate the obtained goodness of fit. We call this anomaly in water balance as "inner balance error of the model". To modulate the goodness of fit values, a penalty function that depends on this error is proposed. In addition, this penalty function is introduced into a multi-criteria objective function, which is also tested. This procedure was followed in modelling the Headwater of the Tagus River (Spain), applying the monthly abcd water balance model. Modulation of the goodness of fit allowed for detecting balance errors in the modelling, revealing that in the simulation of some catchments the model tends to accumulate water in, or release water from, the reservoir that simulates groundwater storage. Although the proposed multi-criteria objective function solves the inner balance error for most catchments, in some cases the error cannot be corrected, indicating that any error in the input and output data is probably related to groundwater flows.
format	article
author	Francisco Pellicer-Martínez Francisco Gomariz-Castillo María Manuela Portela Isabel María Martínez-Alcalá José Miguel Martínez-Paz
author_facet	Francisco Pellicer-Martínez Francisco Gomariz-Castillo María Manuela Portela Isabel María Martínez-Alcalá José Miguel Martínez-Paz
author_sort	Francisco Pellicer-Martínez
title	Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
title_short	Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
title_full	Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
title_fullStr	Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
title_full_unstemmed	Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
title_sort	modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d9a8f592d8784e0fbb3eb6b7a95806f6
work_keys_str_mv	AT franciscopellicermartinez modulationofthegoodnessoffitinhydrologicalmodellingbasedoninnerbalanceerrors AT franciscogomarizcastillo modulationofthegoodnessoffitinhydrologicalmodellingbasedoninnerbalanceerrors AT mariamanuelaportela modulationofthegoodnessoffitinhydrologicalmodellingbasedoninnerbalanceerrors AT isabelmariamartinezalcala modulationofthegoodnessoffitinhydrologicalmodellingbasedoninnerbalanceerrors AT josemiguelmartinezpaz modulationofthegoodnessoffitinhydrologicalmodellingbasedoninnerbalanceerrors
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Modulation of the goodness of fit in hydrological modelling based on inner balance errors.

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