A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer

Abstract Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rat...

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Autores principales:	Michael S. Awadalla, Kristin A. Bendikson, Jacqueline R. Ho, Lynda K. McGinnis, Ali Ahmady
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d9ab0213ef0b4cb6ab9a346afaa4e28b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d9ab0213ef0b4cb6ab9a346afaa4e28b2021-12-02T16:53:12ZA validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer10.1038/s41598-021-90254-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d9ab0213ef0b4cb6ab9a346afaa4e28b2021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90254-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts for patient age, embryo stage (cleavage or blastocyst), type of transfer cycle (fresh or frozen) and uterine/universal factors. The standardized errors for rates of singleton and twin deliveries were normally distributed and the mean errors were not significantly different from zero (all p > 0.05). The live birth rates per embryo varied from as high as 43% for fresh blastocysts in the 35-year-old age group to as low as 1% for frozen cleavage stage embryos in the 43-year-old age group. This quantitative model or a simplified version can be used for clinics to generate and analyze their own data to guide the number of embryos to transfer to limit the risk of multiple gestations.Michael S. AwadallaKristin A. BendiksonJacqueline R. HoLynda K. McGinnisAli AhmadyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Michael S. Awadalla Kristin A. Bendikson Jacqueline R. Ho Lynda K. McGinnis Ali Ahmady A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
description	Abstract Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts for patient age, embryo stage (cleavage or blastocyst), type of transfer cycle (fresh or frozen) and uterine/universal factors. The standardized errors for rates of singleton and twin deliveries were normally distributed and the mean errors were not significantly different from zero (all p > 0.05). The live birth rates per embryo varied from as high as 43% for fresh blastocysts in the 35-year-old age group to as low as 1% for frozen cleavage stage embryos in the 43-year-old age group. This quantitative model or a simplified version can be used for clinics to generate and analyze their own data to guide the number of embryos to transfer to limit the risk of multiple gestations.
format	article
author	Michael S. Awadalla Kristin A. Bendikson Jacqueline R. Ho Lynda K. McGinnis Ali Ahmady
author_facet	Michael S. Awadalla Kristin A. Bendikson Jacqueline R. Ho Lynda K. McGinnis Ali Ahmady
author_sort	Michael S. Awadalla
title	A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
title_short	A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
title_full	A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
title_fullStr	A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
title_full_unstemmed	A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
title_sort	validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d9ab0213ef0b4cb6ab9a346afaa4e28b
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A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer

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