Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.

<h4>Background</h4>Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (M. ulcerans), is a necrotizing skin disease found in more than 30 countries worldwide. BU incidence is highest in West Africa; however, cases have substantially increased in coastal regions of southern Australia over...

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Autores principales:	Jenni van Ravensway, M Eric Benbow, Anastasios A Tsonis, Steven J Pierce, Lindsay P Campbell, Janet A M Fyfe, John A Hayman, Paul D R Johnson, John R Wallace, Jiaguo Qi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/da37e53eac804da99419d6bc04a23f6a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:da37e53eac804da99419d6bc04a23f6a2021-11-18T08:05:47ZClimate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0051074https://doaj.org/article/da37e53eac804da99419d6bc04a23f6a2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23251425/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (M. ulcerans), is a necrotizing skin disease found in more than 30 countries worldwide. BU incidence is highest in West Africa; however, cases have substantially increased in coastal regions of southern Australia over the past 30 years. Although the mode of transmission remains uncertain, the spatial pattern of BU emergence in recent years seems to suggest that there is an environmental niche for M. ulcerans and BU prevalence.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Network analysis was applied to BU cases in Victoria, Australia, from 1981-2008. Results revealed a non-random spatio-temporal pattern at the regional scale as well as a stable and efficient BU disease network, indicating that deterministic factors influence the occurrence of this disease. Monthly BU incidence reported by locality was analyzed with landscape and climate data using a multilevel Poisson regression approach. The results suggest the highest BU risk areas occur at low elevations with forested land cover, similar to previous studies of BU risk in West Africa. Additionally, climate conditions as far as 1.5 years in advance appear to impact disease incidence. Warmer and wetter conditions 18-19 months prior to case emergence, followed by a dry period approximately 5 months prior to case emergence seem to favor the occurrence of BU.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>The BU network structure in Victoria, Australia, suggests external environmental factors favor M. ulcerans transmission and, therefore, BU incidence. A unique combination of environmental conditions, including land cover type, temperature and a wet-dry sequence, may produce habitat characteristics that support M. ulcerans transmission and BU prevalence. These findings imply that future BU research efforts on transmission mechanisms should focus on potential vectors/reservoirs found in those environmental niches. Further, this study is the first to quantitatively estimate environmental lag times associated with BU outbreaks, providing insights for future transmission investigations.Jenni van RavenswayM Eric BenbowAnastasios A TsonisSteven J PierceLindsay P CampbellJanet A M FyfeJohn A HaymanPaul D R JohnsonJohn R WallaceJiaguo QiPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 12, p e51074 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jenni van Ravensway M Eric Benbow Anastasios A Tsonis Steven J Pierce Lindsay P Campbell Janet A M Fyfe John A Hayman Paul D R Johnson John R Wallace Jiaguo Qi Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (M. ulcerans), is a necrotizing skin disease found in more than 30 countries worldwide. BU incidence is highest in West Africa; however, cases have substantially increased in coastal regions of southern Australia over the past 30 years. Although the mode of transmission remains uncertain, the spatial pattern of BU emergence in recent years seems to suggest that there is an environmental niche for M. ulcerans and BU prevalence.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Network analysis was applied to BU cases in Victoria, Australia, from 1981-2008. Results revealed a non-random spatio-temporal pattern at the regional scale as well as a stable and efficient BU disease network, indicating that deterministic factors influence the occurrence of this disease. Monthly BU incidence reported by locality was analyzed with landscape and climate data using a multilevel Poisson regression approach. The results suggest the highest BU risk areas occur at low elevations with forested land cover, similar to previous studies of BU risk in West Africa. Additionally, climate conditions as far as 1.5 years in advance appear to impact disease incidence. Warmer and wetter conditions 18-19 months prior to case emergence, followed by a dry period approximately 5 months prior to case emergence seem to favor the occurrence of BU.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>The BU network structure in Victoria, Australia, suggests external environmental factors favor M. ulcerans transmission and, therefore, BU incidence. A unique combination of environmental conditions, including land cover type, temperature and a wet-dry sequence, may produce habitat characteristics that support M. ulcerans transmission and BU prevalence. These findings imply that future BU research efforts on transmission mechanisms should focus on potential vectors/reservoirs found in those environmental niches. Further, this study is the first to quantitatively estimate environmental lag times associated with BU outbreaks, providing insights for future transmission investigations.
format	article
author	Jenni van Ravensway M Eric Benbow Anastasios A Tsonis Steven J Pierce Lindsay P Campbell Janet A M Fyfe John A Hayman Paul D R Johnson John R Wallace Jiaguo Qi
author_facet	Jenni van Ravensway M Eric Benbow Anastasios A Tsonis Steven J Pierce Lindsay P Campbell Janet A M Fyfe John A Hayman Paul D R Johnson John R Wallace Jiaguo Qi
author_sort	Jenni van Ravensway
title	Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.
title_short	Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.
title_full	Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.
title_fullStr	Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.
title_full_unstemmed	Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.
title_sort	climate and landscape factors associated with buruli ulcer incidence in victoria, australia.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/da37e53eac804da99419d6bc04a23f6a
work_keys_str_mv	AT jennivanravensway climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT mericbenbow climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT anastasiosatsonis climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT stevenjpierce climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT lindsaypcampbell climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT janetamfyfe climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT johnahayman climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT pauldrjohnson climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT johnrwallace climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia AT jiaguoqi climateandlandscapefactorsassociatedwithburuliulcerincidenceinvictoriaaustralia
_version_	1718422260521369600

Climate and landscape factors associated with Buruli ulcer incidence in Victoria, Australia.

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