Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100

Abstract Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented warming and acidification caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. For the global sea surface, we quantified the degree that present climates are disappearing and novel climates (without recent analogs) are emerging, spanning from 1800 through...

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Autores principales:	Katie E. Lotterhos, Áki J. Láruson, Li-Qing Jiang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/da64ba224fca40caad566921e2e35cb2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:da64ba224fca40caad566921e2e35cb22021-12-02T15:09:23ZNovel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 210010.1038/s41598-021-94872-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/da64ba224fca40caad566921e2e35cb22021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94872-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented warming and acidification caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. For the global sea surface, we quantified the degree that present climates are disappearing and novel climates (without recent analogs) are emerging, spanning from 1800 through different emission scenarios to 2100. We quantified the sea surface environment based on model estimates of carbonate chemistry and temperature. Between 1800 and 2000, no gridpoints on the ocean surface were estimated to have experienced an extreme degree of global disappearance or novelty. In other words, the majority of environmental shifts since 1800 were not novel, which is consistent with evidence that marine species have been able to track shifting environments via dispersal. However, between 2000 and 2100 under Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 projections, 10–82% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global novelty. Additionally, 35–95% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global disappearance. These upward estimates of climate novelty and disappearance are larger than those predicted for terrestrial systems. Without mitigation, many species will face rapidly disappearing or novel climates that cannot be outpaced by dispersal and may require evolutionary adaptation to keep pace.Katie E. LotterhosÁki J. LárusonLi-Qing JiangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Katie E. Lotterhos Áki J. Láruson Li-Qing Jiang Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
description	Abstract Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented warming and acidification caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. For the global sea surface, we quantified the degree that present climates are disappearing and novel climates (without recent analogs) are emerging, spanning from 1800 through different emission scenarios to 2100. We quantified the sea surface environment based on model estimates of carbonate chemistry and temperature. Between 1800 and 2000, no gridpoints on the ocean surface were estimated to have experienced an extreme degree of global disappearance or novelty. In other words, the majority of environmental shifts since 1800 were not novel, which is consistent with evidence that marine species have been able to track shifting environments via dispersal. However, between 2000 and 2100 under Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 projections, 10–82% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global novelty. Additionally, 35–95% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global disappearance. These upward estimates of climate novelty and disappearance are larger than those predicted for terrestrial systems. Without mitigation, many species will face rapidly disappearing or novel climates that cannot be outpaced by dispersal and may require evolutionary adaptation to keep pace.
format	article
author	Katie E. Lotterhos Áki J. Láruson Li-Qing Jiang
author_facet	Katie E. Lotterhos Áki J. Láruson Li-Qing Jiang
author_sort	Katie E. Lotterhos
title	Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
title_short	Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
title_full	Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
title_fullStr	Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
title_full_unstemmed	Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
title_sort	novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/da64ba224fca40caad566921e2e35cb2
work_keys_str_mv	AT katieelotterhos novelanddisappearingclimatesintheglobalsurfaceoceanfrom1800to2100 AT akijlaruson novelanddisappearingclimatesintheglobalsurfaceoceanfrom1800to2100 AT liqingjiang novelanddisappearingclimatesintheglobalsurfaceoceanfrom1800to2100
_version_	1718387843661824000

Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100

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