Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria

The quality, reliability, and uncertainty of Austrian climate projections (ÖKS15) and their impacts on the results of the crop model DSSAT for three different orographic and climatic agricultural regions in Austria were analyzed. Cultivar-specific grain yields of winter wheat, spring barley, and mai...

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Autores principales:	Sabina Thaler, Herbert Formayer, Gerhard Kubu, Miroslav Trnka, Josef Eitzinger
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change DSSAT ÖKS15 aggregated weather data winter wheat spring barley Agriculture (General) S1-972
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/da6b91068fdf4f9e865850ab0770cdf4
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:da6b91068fdf4f9e865850ab0770cdf4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:da6b91068fdf4f9e865850ab0770cdf42021-11-25T15:57:56ZEffects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria10.3390/agriculture111110292077-0472https://doaj.org/article/da6b91068fdf4f9e865850ab0770cdf42021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/11/1029https://doaj.org/toc/2077-0472The quality, reliability, and uncertainty of Austrian climate projections (ÖKS15) and their impacts on the results of the crop model DSSAT for three different orographic and climatic agricultural regions in Austria were analyzed. Cultivar-specific grain yields of winter wheat, spring barley, and maize were simulated for different soil classes to address three main objectives. First, the uncertainties of simulated crop yields related to the ÖKS15 projections were analyzed under current climate conditions. The climate projections revealed that the case study regions with higher humidity levels generally had lower yield deviations than the drier regions (yield deviations from −19% to +15%). Regarding the simulated crop types, spring barley was found to be less sensitive to the climate projections than rainfed maize, and the response was greater in regions with a low soil water storage capacity. The second objective was to simulate crop yields for the same cultivars using future climate projections. Winter wheat and spring barley tended to show increased yields by the end of the century due to an assumed CO<sub>2</sub>-fertilization effect in the range of 3–23%, especially under RCP 8.5. However, rainfed and irrigated maize were associated with up to 17% yield reductions in all three study regions due to a shortened growth period caused by warming. The third objective addressed the effects of crop model weather input data with different spatial resolutions (1 vs. 5, 11, and 21 km) on simulated crop yields using the climate projections. Irrigated grain maize and rainfed spring barley had the lowest simulated yield deviations between the spatial scales applied due to their better water supply conditions. The ranges of uncertainty revealed by the different analyses suggest that impact models should be tested with site representative conditions before being applied to develop site-specific adaptation options for Austrian crop production.Sabina ThalerHerbert FormayerGerhard KubuMiroslav TrnkaJosef EitzingerMDPI AGarticleclimate changeDSSATÖKS15aggregated weather datawinter wheatspring barleyAgriculture (General)S1-972ENAgriculture, Vol 11, Iss 1029, p 1029 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change DSSAT ÖKS15 aggregated weather data winter wheat spring barley Agriculture (General) S1-972
spellingShingle	climate change DSSAT ÖKS15 aggregated weather data winter wheat spring barley Agriculture (General) S1-972 Sabina Thaler Herbert Formayer Gerhard Kubu Miroslav Trnka Josef Eitzinger Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria
description	The quality, reliability, and uncertainty of Austrian climate projections (ÖKS15) and their impacts on the results of the crop model DSSAT for three different orographic and climatic agricultural regions in Austria were analyzed. Cultivar-specific grain yields of winter wheat, spring barley, and maize were simulated for different soil classes to address three main objectives. First, the uncertainties of simulated crop yields related to the ÖKS15 projections were analyzed under current climate conditions. The climate projections revealed that the case study regions with higher humidity levels generally had lower yield deviations than the drier regions (yield deviations from −19% to +15%). Regarding the simulated crop types, spring barley was found to be less sensitive to the climate projections than rainfed maize, and the response was greater in regions with a low soil water storage capacity. The second objective was to simulate crop yields for the same cultivars using future climate projections. Winter wheat and spring barley tended to show increased yields by the end of the century due to an assumed CO<sub>2</sub>-fertilization effect in the range of 3–23%, especially under RCP 8.5. However, rainfed and irrigated maize were associated with up to 17% yield reductions in all three study regions due to a shortened growth period caused by warming. The third objective addressed the effects of crop model weather input data with different spatial resolutions (1 vs. 5, 11, and 21 km) on simulated crop yields using the climate projections. Irrigated grain maize and rainfed spring barley had the lowest simulated yield deviations between the spatial scales applied due to their better water supply conditions. The ranges of uncertainty revealed by the different analyses suggest that impact models should be tested with site representative conditions before being applied to develop site-specific adaptation options for Austrian crop production.
format	article
author	Sabina Thaler Herbert Formayer Gerhard Kubu Miroslav Trnka Josef Eitzinger
author_facet	Sabina Thaler Herbert Formayer Gerhard Kubu Miroslav Trnka Josef Eitzinger
author_sort	Sabina Thaler
title	Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria
title_short	Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria
title_full	Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria
title_fullStr	Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria
title_full_unstemmed	Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria
title_sort	effects of bias-corrected regional climate projections and their spatial resolutions on crop model results under different climatic and soil conditions in austria
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/da6b91068fdf4f9e865850ab0770cdf4
work_keys_str_mv	AT sabinathaler effectsofbiascorrectedregionalclimateprojectionsandtheirspatialresolutionsoncropmodelresultsunderdifferentclimaticandsoilconditionsinaustria AT herbertformayer effectsofbiascorrectedregionalclimateprojectionsandtheirspatialresolutionsoncropmodelresultsunderdifferentclimaticandsoilconditionsinaustria AT gerhardkubu effectsofbiascorrectedregionalclimateprojectionsandtheirspatialresolutionsoncropmodelresultsunderdifferentclimaticandsoilconditionsinaustria AT miroslavtrnka effectsofbiascorrectedregionalclimateprojectionsandtheirspatialresolutionsoncropmodelresultsunderdifferentclimaticandsoilconditionsinaustria AT josefeitzinger effectsofbiascorrectedregionalclimateprojectionsandtheirspatialresolutionsoncropmodelresultsunderdifferentclimaticandsoilconditionsinaustria
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Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria

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