Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios

In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment, Upper Blue Nile basin, is evaluated. We used the outputs of four climate models for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, which are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Streamflow simulation was...

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Autores principales:	Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele, Alemseged Tamiru Haile, Tom Rientjes
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	arjo-didessa climate change hec-hms rcm streamflow upper blue nile Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/da9c170e65864bfe809439818150febb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:da9c170e65864bfe809439818150febb2021-11-05T19:07:24ZImpact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.307https://doaj.org/article/da9c170e65864bfe809439818150febb2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2325https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment, Upper Blue Nile basin, is evaluated. We used the outputs of four climate models for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, which are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Streamflow simulation was done by using the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model, which was satisfactorily calibrated and validated for the study area. For the historic period (1971–2000), all climate models significantly underestimated the observed rainfall amount for the rainy season. We therefore bias-corrected the climate data before using them as input for the rainfall-runoff model. The results of the four climate models for the period 2041 to 2070 show that annual rainfall is likely to decrease by 0.36 to 21% under RCP 4.5. The projected increases in minimum and maximum temperature will lead to an increase in annual evapotranspiration by 3 to 7%, which will likely contribute to decreasing the annual flows of Arjo-Didessa by 1 to 3%. Our results show that the impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season but a decreased flow in the short rainy season and the dry seasons. The magnitudes of projected changes are more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5. HIGHLIGHTS Hydrological modeling was done by using HEC-HMS.; Outputs of four regional climate models were bias-corrected for hydrological impact evaluation.; For the period 2041 to 2070, annual rainfall will decrease by 0.36 to 21%, while the annual PET will increase by 3 to 7% under RCP 4.5.; The annual flows of Arjo-Didessa will decrease by 1 to 3%.; The impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season.;Wudeneh Temesgen BekeleAlemseged Tamiru HaileTom RientjesIWA Publishingarticlearjo-didessaclimate changehec-hmsrcmstreamflowupper blue nileEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2325-2337 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	arjo-didessa climate change hec-hms rcm streamflow upper blue nile Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	arjo-didessa climate change hec-hms rcm streamflow upper blue nile Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele Alemseged Tamiru Haile Tom Rientjes Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios
description	In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment, Upper Blue Nile basin, is evaluated. We used the outputs of four climate models for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, which are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Streamflow simulation was done by using the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model, which was satisfactorily calibrated and validated for the study area. For the historic period (1971–2000), all climate models significantly underestimated the observed rainfall amount for the rainy season. We therefore bias-corrected the climate data before using them as input for the rainfall-runoff model. The results of the four climate models for the period 2041 to 2070 show that annual rainfall is likely to decrease by 0.36 to 21% under RCP 4.5. The projected increases in minimum and maximum temperature will lead to an increase in annual evapotranspiration by 3 to 7%, which will likely contribute to decreasing the annual flows of Arjo-Didessa by 1 to 3%. Our results show that the impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season but a decreased flow in the short rainy season and the dry seasons. The magnitudes of projected changes are more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5. HIGHLIGHTS Hydrological modeling was done by using HEC-HMS.; Outputs of four regional climate models were bias-corrected for hydrological impact evaluation.; For the period 2041 to 2070, annual rainfall will decrease by 0.36 to 21%, while the annual PET will increase by 3 to 7% under RCP 4.5.; The annual flows of Arjo-Didessa will decrease by 1 to 3%.; The impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season.;
format	article
author	Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele Alemseged Tamiru Haile Tom Rientjes
author_facet	Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele Alemseged Tamiru Haile Tom Rientjes
author_sort	Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele
title	Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios
title_short	Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios
title_full	Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios
title_fullStr	Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios
title_sort	impact of climate change on the streamflow of the arjo-didessa catchment under rcp scenarios
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/da9c170e65864bfe809439818150febb
work_keys_str_mv	AT wudenehtemesgenbekele impactofclimatechangeonthestreamflowofthearjodidessacatchmentunderrcpscenarios AT alemsegedtamiruhaile impactofclimatechangeonthestreamflowofthearjodidessacatchmentunderrcpscenarios AT tomrientjes impactofclimatechangeonthestreamflowofthearjodidessacatchmentunderrcpscenarios
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Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios

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