Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species

Ripe rot caused by <i>Colletotrichum</i> spp. is a serious threat in many vineyards, and its control relies mainly on the repeated use of fungicides. A mechanistic, dynamic model for the prediction of grape ripe rot epidemics was developed by using information and data from a systematic...

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Autores principales:	Tao Ji, Irene Salotti, Chaoyang Dong, Ming Li, Vittorio Rossi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	life cycle epidemiology disease modeling model validation Botany QK1-989
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/dadf564413574a07abce73b4a23ff3f9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:dadf564413574a07abce73b4a23ff3f92021-11-25T18:44:48ZModeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species10.3390/plants101122882223-7747https://doaj.org/article/dadf564413574a07abce73b4a23ff3f92021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/11/2288https://doaj.org/toc/2223-7747Ripe rot caused by <i>Colletotrichum</i> spp. is a serious threat in many vineyards, and its control relies mainly on the repeated use of fungicides. A mechanistic, dynamic model for the prediction of grape ripe rot epidemics was developed by using information and data from a systematic literature review. The model accounts for (i) the production and maturation of the primary inoculum; (ii) the infection caused by the primary inoculum; (iii) the production of a secondary inoculum; and (iv) the infection caused by the secondary inoculum. The model was validated in 19 epidemics (vineyard × year combinations) between 1980 and 2014 in China, Japan, and the USA. The observed disease incidence was correlated with the number of infection events predicted by the model and their severity (ρ = 0.878 and 0.533, respectively, n = 37, <i>p</i> ≤ 0.001). The model also accurately predicted the disease severity progress during the season, with a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.975 between the observed and predicted data. Overall, the model provided an accurate description of the grape ripe rot system, as well as reliable predictions of infection events and of disease progress during the season. The model increases our understanding of ripe rot epidemics in vineyards and will help guide disease control. By using the model, growers can schedule fungicides based on the risk of infection rather than on a seasonal spray calendar.Tao JiIrene SalottiChaoyang DongMing LiVittorio RossiMDPI AGarticlelife cycleepidemiologydisease modelingmodel validationBotanyQK1-989ENPlants, Vol 10, Iss 2288, p 2288 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	life cycle epidemiology disease modeling model validation Botany QK1-989
spellingShingle	life cycle epidemiology disease modeling model validation Botany QK1-989 Tao Ji Irene Salotti Chaoyang Dong Ming Li Vittorio Rossi Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species
description	Ripe rot caused by <i>Colletotrichum</i> spp. is a serious threat in many vineyards, and its control relies mainly on the repeated use of fungicides. A mechanistic, dynamic model for the prediction of grape ripe rot epidemics was developed by using information and data from a systematic literature review. The model accounts for (i) the production and maturation of the primary inoculum; (ii) the infection caused by the primary inoculum; (iii) the production of a secondary inoculum; and (iv) the infection caused by the secondary inoculum. The model was validated in 19 epidemics (vineyard × year combinations) between 1980 and 2014 in China, Japan, and the USA. The observed disease incidence was correlated with the number of infection events predicted by the model and their severity (ρ = 0.878 and 0.533, respectively, n = 37, <i>p</i> ≤ 0.001). The model also accurately predicted the disease severity progress during the season, with a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.975 between the observed and predicted data. Overall, the model provided an accurate description of the grape ripe rot system, as well as reliable predictions of infection events and of disease progress during the season. The model increases our understanding of ripe rot epidemics in vineyards and will help guide disease control. By using the model, growers can schedule fungicides based on the risk of infection rather than on a seasonal spray calendar.
format	article
author	Tao Ji Irene Salotti Chaoyang Dong Ming Li Vittorio Rossi
author_facet	Tao Ji Irene Salotti Chaoyang Dong Ming Li Vittorio Rossi
author_sort	Tao Ji
title	Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species
title_short	Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species
title_full	Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species
title_fullStr	Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species
title_sort	modeling the effects of the environment and the host plant on the ripe rot of grapes, caused by the <i>colletotrichum</i> species
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/dadf564413574a07abce73b4a23ff3f9
work_keys_str_mv	AT taoji modelingtheeffectsoftheenvironmentandthehostplantontheriperotofgrapescausedbytheicolletotrichumispecies AT irenesalotti modelingtheeffectsoftheenvironmentandthehostplantontheriperotofgrapescausedbytheicolletotrichumispecies AT chaoyangdong modelingtheeffectsoftheenvironmentandthehostplantontheriperotofgrapescausedbytheicolletotrichumispecies AT mingli modelingtheeffectsoftheenvironmentandthehostplantontheriperotofgrapescausedbytheicolletotrichumispecies AT vittoriorossi modelingtheeffectsoftheenvironmentandthehostplantontheriperotofgrapescausedbytheicolletotrichumispecies
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Modeling the Effects of the Environment and the Host Plant on the Ripe Rot of Grapes, Caused by the <i>Colletotrichum</i> Species

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