State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures

Abstract Most models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States do not consider geographic variation and spatial interaction. In this research, we developed a travel-network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical compartmental model system that characterizes infections b...

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Autores principales:	Shi Chen, Qin Li, Song Gao, Yuhao Kang, Xun Shi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/db5052cc063b4a96bfb9e5c4aef780d0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:db5052cc063b4a96bfb9e5c4aef780d02021-12-02T13:46:47ZState-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures10.1038/s41598-020-80044-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/db5052cc063b4a96bfb9e5c4aef780d02020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80044-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Most models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States do not consider geographic variation and spatial interaction. In this research, we developed a travel-network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical compartmental model system that characterizes infections by state and incorporates inflows and outflows of interstate travelers. Modeling reveals that curbing interstate travel when the disease is already widespread will make little difference. Meanwhile, increased testing capacity (facilitating early identification of infected people and quick isolation) and strict social-distancing and self-quarantine rules are most effective in abating the outbreak. The modeling has also produced state-specific information. For example, for New York and Michigan, isolation of persons exposed to the virus needs to be imposed within 2 days to prevent a broad outbreak, whereas for other states this period can be 3.6 days. This model could be used to determine resources needed before safely lifting state policies on social distancing.Shi ChenQin LiSong GaoYuhao KangXun ShiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shi Chen Qin Li Song Gao Yuhao Kang Xun Shi State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures
description	Abstract Most models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States do not consider geographic variation and spatial interaction. In this research, we developed a travel-network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical compartmental model system that characterizes infections by state and incorporates inflows and outflows of interstate travelers. Modeling reveals that curbing interstate travel when the disease is already widespread will make little difference. Meanwhile, increased testing capacity (facilitating early identification of infected people and quick isolation) and strict social-distancing and self-quarantine rules are most effective in abating the outbreak. The modeling has also produced state-specific information. For example, for New York and Michigan, isolation of persons exposed to the virus needs to be imposed within 2 days to prevent a broad outbreak, whereas for other states this period can be 3.6 days. This model could be used to determine resources needed before safely lifting state policies on social distancing.
format	article
author	Shi Chen Qin Li Song Gao Yuhao Kang Xun Shi
author_facet	Shi Chen Qin Li Song Gao Yuhao Kang Xun Shi
author_sort	Shi Chen
title	State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures
title_short	State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures
title_full	State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures
title_fullStr	State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures
title_full_unstemmed	State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures
title_sort	state-specific projection of covid-19 infection in the united states and evaluation of three major control measures
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/db5052cc063b4a96bfb9e5c4aef780d0
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State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures

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