Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model

Abstract The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global crisis due to its quick and wide spread over the world. A good understanding of the dynamic of the disease would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID19. However, to the best of our knowledge, the...

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Autores principales:	Yuan Zhang, Chong You, Zhenhao Cai, Jiarui Sun, Wenjie Hu, Xiao-Hua Zhou
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/dba130d5138e4a5f9f0e7ceff965f3fb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:dba130d5138e4a5f9f0e7ceff965f3fb2021-12-02T11:43:43ZPrediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model10.1038/s41598-020-76630-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/dba130d5138e4a5f9f0e7ceff965f3fb2020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76630-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global crisis due to its quick and wide spread over the world. A good understanding of the dynamic of the disease would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID19. However, to the best of our knowledge, the unique features of the outbreak have limited the applications of all existing dynamic models. In this paper, a novel stochastic model was proposed aiming to account for the unique transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and capture the effects of intervention measures implemented in Mainland China. We found that: (1) instead of aberration, there was a remarkable amount of asymptomatic virus carriers, (2) a virus carrier with symptoms was approximately twice more likely to pass the disease to others than that of an asymptomatic virus carrier, (3) the transmission rate reduced significantly since the implementation of control measures in Mainland China, and (4) it was expected that the epidemic outbreak would be contained by early March in the selected provinces and cities in China.Yuan ZhangChong YouZhenhao CaiJiarui SunWenjie HuXiao-Hua ZhouNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yuan Zhang Chong You Zhenhao Cai Jiarui Sun Wenjie Hu Xiao-Hua Zhou Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model
description	Abstract The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global crisis due to its quick and wide spread over the world. A good understanding of the dynamic of the disease would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID19. However, to the best of our knowledge, the unique features of the outbreak have limited the applications of all existing dynamic models. In this paper, a novel stochastic model was proposed aiming to account for the unique transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and capture the effects of intervention measures implemented in Mainland China. We found that: (1) instead of aberration, there was a remarkable amount of asymptomatic virus carriers, (2) a virus carrier with symptoms was approximately twice more likely to pass the disease to others than that of an asymptomatic virus carrier, (3) the transmission rate reduced significantly since the implementation of control measures in Mainland China, and (4) it was expected that the epidemic outbreak would be contained by early March in the selected provinces and cities in China.
format	article
author	Yuan Zhang Chong You Zhenhao Cai Jiarui Sun Wenjie Hu Xiao-Hua Zhou
author_facet	Yuan Zhang Chong You Zhenhao Cai Jiarui Sun Wenjie Hu Xiao-Hua Zhou
author_sort	Yuan Zhang
title	Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model
title_short	Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model
title_full	Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model
title_fullStr	Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model
title_sort	prediction of the covid-19 outbreak in china based on a new stochastic dynamic model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/dba130d5138e4a5f9f0e7ceff965f3fb
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_version_	1718395372441698304

Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on a new stochastic dynamic model

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