Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools

Abstract There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3...

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Autores principales:	Brendon Phillips, Dillon T. Browne, Madhur Anand, Chris T. Bauch
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/dbf722c0577a4d5bb75871564ca03345
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:dbf722c0577a4d5bb75871564ca033452021-12-02T13:17:48ZModel-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools10.1038/s41598-021-85302-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/dbf722c0577a4d5bb75871564ca033452021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85302-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2–5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.Brendon PhillipsDillon T. BrowneMadhur AnandChris T. BauchNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Brendon Phillips Dillon T. Browne Madhur Anand Chris T. Bauch Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
description	Abstract There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2–5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.
format	article
author	Brendon Phillips Dillon T. Browne Madhur Anand Chris T. Bauch
author_facet	Brendon Phillips Dillon T. Browne Madhur Anand Chris T. Bauch
author_sort	Brendon Phillips
title	Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
title_short	Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
title_full	Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
title_fullStr	Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
title_full_unstemmed	Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
title_sort	model-based projections for covid-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in ontario childcare centres and primary schools
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/dbf722c0577a4d5bb75871564ca03345
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Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools

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