Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China

Evaluating the changes in runoff and analyzing its attribution under the changing environment is of great significance to water resources management. In this study, eight hydrological stations at the outlets of tributaries of the Upstream Yangtze River are selected. Based on the observed runoff data...

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Autores principales:	Yu Zhang, Manlin Wang, Juan Chen, Ping-an Zhong, Xiufeng Wu, Shiqiang Wu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	attribution analysis changing environment climate change human influence lucc runoff change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/dbf941230b2f445ea07033b2ce5a6ce5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:dbf941230b2f445ea07033b2ce5a6ce52021-11-05T18:31:28ZMultiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.155https://doaj.org/article/dbf941230b2f445ea07033b2ce5a6ce52021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/2/627https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Evaluating the changes in runoff and analyzing its attribution under the changing environment is of great significance to water resources management. In this study, eight hydrological stations at the outlets of tributaries of the Upstream Yangtze River are selected. Based on the observed runoff data from 1951 to 2013, the spatial-temporal characteristics in runoff change are identified from time series analysis. Our results show that runoff in the Upstream Yangtze River decreases significantly with a rate of −7.6 km3 per ten years in general. The most significant declines in runoff are observed in the mainstream, Minjiang River, Tuojiang River, and Jialing River, while slight increase in runoff is found in the source area of the Yangtze River. Furthermore, the effects on runoff change from climate change and human activities are evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and modified Fixing-Changing (MFC) method at multiple scales. Our results suggest that the main contributions to runoff change are from climate change variabilities (70%), land use/cover change (LUCC, 10%), and other human influence (20%). When examined at different spatial and temporal scales, climate change always appears to be the main cause of runoff change, although its contribution decreases over time. HIGHLIGHTS Runoff in the Upstream Yangtze River decreased significantly.; Runoff decline is attributed to climate change, LUCC and other human influence.; Climate change appears to be the main cause of runoff change at different spatial and temporal scales.; Contribution of climate change decreases over time.; Precipitation and temperature are the main meteorological causes of runoff change.;Yu ZhangManlin WangJuan ChenPing-an ZhongXiufeng WuShiqiang WuIWA Publishingarticleattribution analysischanging environmentclimate changehuman influenceluccrunoff changeEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 2, Pp 627-646 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	attribution analysis changing environment climate change human influence lucc runoff change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	attribution analysis changing environment climate change human influence lucc runoff change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Yu Zhang Manlin Wang Juan Chen Ping-an Zhong Xiufeng Wu Shiqiang Wu Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China
description	Evaluating the changes in runoff and analyzing its attribution under the changing environment is of great significance to water resources management. In this study, eight hydrological stations at the outlets of tributaries of the Upstream Yangtze River are selected. Based on the observed runoff data from 1951 to 2013, the spatial-temporal characteristics in runoff change are identified from time series analysis. Our results show that runoff in the Upstream Yangtze River decreases significantly with a rate of −7.6 km3 per ten years in general. The most significant declines in runoff are observed in the mainstream, Minjiang River, Tuojiang River, and Jialing River, while slight increase in runoff is found in the source area of the Yangtze River. Furthermore, the effects on runoff change from climate change and human activities are evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and modified Fixing-Changing (MFC) method at multiple scales. Our results suggest that the main contributions to runoff change are from climate change variabilities (70%), land use/cover change (LUCC, 10%), and other human influence (20%). When examined at different spatial and temporal scales, climate change always appears to be the main cause of runoff change, although its contribution decreases over time. HIGHLIGHTS Runoff in the Upstream Yangtze River decreased significantly.; Runoff decline is attributed to climate change, LUCC and other human influence.; Climate change appears to be the main cause of runoff change at different spatial and temporal scales.; Contribution of climate change decreases over time.; Precipitation and temperature are the main meteorological causes of runoff change.;
format	article
author	Yu Zhang Manlin Wang Juan Chen Ping-an Zhong Xiufeng Wu Shiqiang Wu
author_facet	Yu Zhang Manlin Wang Juan Chen Ping-an Zhong Xiufeng Wu Shiqiang Wu
author_sort	Yu Zhang
title	Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China
title_short	Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China
title_full	Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China
title_fullStr	Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China
title_full_unstemmed	Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China
title_sort	multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the upstream yangtze river in china
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/dbf941230b2f445ea07033b2ce5a6ce5
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Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China

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