Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.

When a pathogen is rare in a host population, there is a chance that it will die out because of stochastic effects instead of causing a major epidemic. Yet no criteria exist to determine when the pathogen increases to a risky level, from which it has a large chance of dying out, to when a major outb...

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Autores principales:	Matthew Hartfield, Samuel Alizon
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/dd510a917f0a4be4a7d6517f34b64b99
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:dd510a917f0a4be4a7d6517f34b64b992021-11-18T06:05:33ZIntroducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.1553-73661553-737410.1371/journal.ppat.1003277https://doaj.org/article/dd510a917f0a4be4a7d6517f34b64b992013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23785276/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7366https://doaj.org/toc/1553-7374When a pathogen is rare in a host population, there is a chance that it will die out because of stochastic effects instead of causing a major epidemic. Yet no criteria exist to determine when the pathogen increases to a risky level, from which it has a large chance of dying out, to when a major outbreak is almost certain. We introduce such an outbreak threshold (T₀), and find that for large and homogeneous host populations, in which the pathogen has a reproductive ratio R₀, on the order of 1/Log(R₀) infected individuals are needed to prevent stochastic fade-out during the early stages of an epidemic. We also show how this threshold scales with higher heterogeneity and R0 in the host population. These results have implications for controlling emerging and re-emerging pathogens.Matthew HartfieldSamuel AlizonPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleImmunologic diseases. AllergyRC581-607Biology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Pathogens, Vol 9, Iss 6, p e1003277 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Immunologic diseases. Allergy RC581-607 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Matthew Hartfield Samuel Alizon Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
description	When a pathogen is rare in a host population, there is a chance that it will die out because of stochastic effects instead of causing a major epidemic. Yet no criteria exist to determine when the pathogen increases to a risky level, from which it has a large chance of dying out, to when a major outbreak is almost certain. We introduce such an outbreak threshold (T₀), and find that for large and homogeneous host populations, in which the pathogen has a reproductive ratio R₀, on the order of 1/Log(R₀) infected individuals are needed to prevent stochastic fade-out during the early stages of an epidemic. We also show how this threshold scales with higher heterogeneity and R0 in the host population. These results have implications for controlling emerging and re-emerging pathogens.
format	article
author	Matthew Hartfield Samuel Alizon
author_facet	Matthew Hartfield Samuel Alizon
author_sort	Matthew Hartfield
title	Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
title_short	Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
title_full	Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
title_fullStr	Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
title_full_unstemmed	Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
title_sort	introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/dd510a917f0a4be4a7d6517f34b64b99
work_keys_str_mv	AT matthewhartfield introducingtheoutbreakthresholdinepidemiology AT samuelalizon introducingtheoutbreakthresholdinepidemiology
_version_	1718424636921741312

Introducing the outbreak threshold in epidemiology.

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