Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number

Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, whi...

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Autores principales:	Chantal B. F. Vogels, Nienke Hartemink, Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/de0ca6109cb64c1eb9fe674504dd842c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:de0ca6109cb64c1eb9fe674504dd842c2021-12-02T16:07:44ZModelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number10.1038/s41598-017-05185-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/de0ca6109cb64c1eb9fe674504dd842c2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05185-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R 0) models. However, existing R 0 models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R 0 model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R 0 values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R 0. Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R 0 shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.Chantal B. F. VogelsNienke HarteminkConstantianus J. M. KoenraadtNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Chantal B. F. Vogels Nienke Hartemink Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
description	Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R 0) models. However, existing R 0 models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R 0 model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R 0 values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R 0. Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R 0 shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.
format	article
author	Chantal B. F. Vogels Nienke Hartemink Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt
author_facet	Chantal B. F. Vogels Nienke Hartemink Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt
author_sort	Chantal B. F. Vogels
title	Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
title_short	Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
title_full	Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
title_fullStr	Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
title_sort	modelling west nile virus transmission risk in europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/de0ca6109cb64c1eb9fe674504dd842c
work_keys_str_mv	AT chantalbfvogels modellingwestnilevirustransmissionriskineuropeeffectoftemperatureandmosquitobiotypesonthebasicreproductionnumber AT nienkehartemink modellingwestnilevirustransmissionriskineuropeeffectoftemperatureandmosquitobiotypesonthebasicreproductionnumber AT constantianusjmkoenraadt modellingwestnilevirustransmissionriskineuropeeffectoftemperatureandmosquitobiotypesonthebasicreproductionnumber
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Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number

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