Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally like...

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Autores principales:	T Alex Perkins, Thomas W Scott, Arnaud Le Menach, David L Smith
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/df1b3bc935e5496c81e908ac35aa1e69
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:df1b3bc935e5496c81e908ac35aa1e692021-11-18T05:53:18ZHeterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1003327https://doaj.org/article/df1b3bc935e5496c81e908ac35aa1e692013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24348223/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, R0. Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission--pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation--and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of R0, both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data.T Alex PerkinsThomas W ScottArnaud Le MenachDavid L SmithPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 9, Iss 12, p e1003327 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 T Alex Perkins Thomas W Scott Arnaud Le Menach David L Smith Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
description	The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, R0. Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission--pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation--and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of R0, both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data.
format	article
author	T Alex Perkins Thomas W Scott Arnaud Le Menach David L Smith
author_facet	T Alex Perkins Thomas W Scott Arnaud Le Menach David L Smith
author_sort	T Alex Perkins
title	Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
title_short	Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
title_full	Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
title_fullStr	Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
title_full_unstemmed	Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
title_sort	heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/df1b3bc935e5496c81e908ac35aa1e69
work_keys_str_mv	AT talexperkins heterogeneitymixingandthespatialscalesofmosquitobornepathogentransmission AT thomaswscott heterogeneitymixingandthespatialscalesofmosquitobornepathogentransmission AT arnaudlemenach heterogeneitymixingandthespatialscalesofmosquitobornepathogentransmission AT davidlsmith heterogeneitymixingandthespatialscalesofmosquitobornepathogentransmission
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Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.

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