Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience...

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Autores principales:	Cristiana J. Silva, Carla Cruz, Delfim F. M. Torres, Alberto P. Muñuzuri, Alejandro Carballosa, Iván Area, Juan J. Nieto, Rui Fonseca-Pinto, Rui Passadouro, Estevão Soares dos Santos, Wilson Abreu, Jorge Mira
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/df25b0ec039540a69b80832c792ec889
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:df25b0ec039540a69b80832c792ec8892021-12-02T13:30:34ZOptimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal10.1038/s41598-021-83075-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/df25b0ec039540a69b80832c792ec8892021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83075-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience hitherto lived has provided data on the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the population dynamics as a result of the public health measures enacted. This allows the formulation of forecasting mathematical models to anticipate the consequences of political decisions. Here we propose a model to do so and apply it to the case of Portugal. With a mathematical deterministic model, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we fit the real evolution of COVID-19 in this country. After identification of the population readiness to follow social restrictions, by analyzing the social media, we incorporate this effect in a version of the model that allow us to check different scenarios. This is realized by considering a Monte Carlo discrete version of the previous model coupled via a complex network. Then, we apply optimal control theory to maximize the number of people returning to “normal life” and minimizing the number of active infected individuals with minimal economical costs while warranting a low level of hospitalizations. This work allows testing various scenarios of pandemic management (closure of sectors of the economy, partial/total compliance with protection measures by citizens, number of beds in intensive care units, etc.), ensuring the responsiveness of the health system, thus being a public health decision support tool.Cristiana J. SilvaCarla CruzDelfim F. M. TorresAlberto P. MuñuzuriAlejandro CarballosaIván AreaJuan J. NietoRui Fonseca-PintoRui PassadouroEstevão Soares dos SantosWilson AbreuJorge MiraNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Cristiana J. Silva Carla Cruz Delfim F. M. Torres Alberto P. Muñuzuri Alejandro Carballosa Iván Area Juan J. Nieto Rui Fonseca-Pinto Rui Passadouro Estevão Soares dos Santos Wilson Abreu Jorge Mira Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal
description	Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience hitherto lived has provided data on the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the population dynamics as a result of the public health measures enacted. This allows the formulation of forecasting mathematical models to anticipate the consequences of political decisions. Here we propose a model to do so and apply it to the case of Portugal. With a mathematical deterministic model, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we fit the real evolution of COVID-19 in this country. After identification of the population readiness to follow social restrictions, by analyzing the social media, we incorporate this effect in a version of the model that allow us to check different scenarios. This is realized by considering a Monte Carlo discrete version of the previous model coupled via a complex network. Then, we apply optimal control theory to maximize the number of people returning to “normal life” and minimizing the number of active infected individuals with minimal economical costs while warranting a low level of hospitalizations. This work allows testing various scenarios of pandemic management (closure of sectors of the economy, partial/total compliance with protection measures by citizens, number of beds in intensive care units, etc.), ensuring the responsiveness of the health system, thus being a public health decision support tool.
format	article
author	Cristiana J. Silva Carla Cruz Delfim F. M. Torres Alberto P. Muñuzuri Alejandro Carballosa Iván Area Juan J. Nieto Rui Fonseca-Pinto Rui Passadouro Estevão Soares dos Santos Wilson Abreu Jorge Mira
author_facet	Cristiana J. Silva Carla Cruz Delfim F. M. Torres Alberto P. Muñuzuri Alejandro Carballosa Iván Area Juan J. Nieto Rui Fonseca-Pinto Rui Passadouro Estevão Soares dos Santos Wilson Abreu Jorge Mira
author_sort	Cristiana J. Silva
title	Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal
title_short	Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal
title_full	Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal
title_fullStr	Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed	Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal
title_sort	optimal control of the covid-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in portugal
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/df25b0ec039540a69b80832c792ec889
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Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal

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