A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years
Abstract Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for...
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Nature Portfolio
2017
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oai:doaj.org-article:df6ebec3af7049918d105efcac0cf9652021-12-02T16:06:09ZA scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years10.1038/s41598-017-00536-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/df6ebec3af7049918d105efcac0cf9652017-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00536-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003–2016. Main outcome variable: time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas.Esther Paredes-AracilAntonio Palazón-BruDavid Manuel Folgado-de la RosaJosé Ramón Ots-GutiérrezAntonio Fernando Compañ-RosiqueVicente Francisco Gil-GuillénNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017) |
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Medicine R Science Q Esther Paredes-Aracil Antonio Palazón-Bru David Manuel Folgado-de la Rosa José Ramón Ots-Gutiérrez Antonio Fernando Compañ-Rosique Vicente Francisco Gil-Guillén A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| description |
Abstract Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003–2016. Main outcome variable: time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Esther Paredes-Aracil Antonio Palazón-Bru David Manuel Folgado-de la Rosa José Ramón Ots-Gutiérrez Antonio Fernando Compañ-Rosique Vicente Francisco Gil-Guillén |
| author_facet |
Esther Paredes-Aracil Antonio Palazón-Bru David Manuel Folgado-de la Rosa José Ramón Ots-Gutiérrez Antonio Fernando Compañ-Rosique Vicente Francisco Gil-Guillén |
| author_sort |
Esther Paredes-Aracil |
| title |
A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| title_short |
A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| title_full |
A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| title_fullStr |
A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| title_sort |
scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years |
| publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/df6ebec3af7049918d105efcac0cf965 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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1718385120137707520 |