Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma

Background. Collecting duct renal cell carcinoma (CDRCC) is a rare type of renal cancer characterized by a poor prognosis. The aim of this work was to develop a nomogram predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with CDRCC. Methods. A total of 324 eligible...

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Autores principales:	Ruotao Xiao, Cheng Liu, Wei He, Lulin Ma
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Hindawi Limited 2021
Materias:	Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/df7e37aec8fb4dce91ad8802794814ba
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:df7e37aec8fb4dce91ad8802794814ba2021-11-22T01:10:22ZPrognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma2314-614110.1155/2021/6736008https://doaj.org/article/df7e37aec8fb4dce91ad8802794814ba2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6736008https://doaj.org/toc/2314-6141Background. Collecting duct renal cell carcinoma (CDRCC) is a rare type of renal cancer characterized by a poor prognosis. The aim of this work was to develop a nomogram predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with CDRCC. Methods. A total of 324 eligible patients diagnosed with CDRCC from 2004 to 2015 were identified using the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS of these patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with OS and CSS. The nomogram was developed based on these factors and evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves using the bootstrap resample method. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was also compared with the manual of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC). Results. The estimated 1-, -3, and 5-year OS and CSS rates in the analytic cohorts were 56.4% and 60%, 32.5% and 37.3%, and 28.7% and 33.6%, respectively. The multivariate model revealed that age, tumor size, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, surgical type, and chemotherapy were independent predicted factors for OS, while tumor size, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, surgical type, and chemotherapy were independently linked to CSS. A nomogram was developed using these factors with relatively good discrimination and calibration. The C-index for OS and CSS was 0.764 (95% CI: 0.735~0.793) and 0.783 (95% CI: 0.754~0.812), which was superior to the AJCC stage (C-index: 0.685 (95% CI: 0.654~0.716) and 0.703 (95% CI: 0.672~0.734)). Patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups according to the total points calculated by the nomogram. Patients in the low-risk group (97 mo and not reached) experienced significantly long median OS and CSS compared to the intermediate-risk (17 mo and 18 mo) and high-risk groups (5 mo for both). The calibration curves showed a good agreement between the predicted and actual probability related to OS and CSS. Conclusion. CDRCC has an aggressively biologic behavior with relatively poor prognosis. A survival prediction nomogram making an individualized evaluation of OS and CSS in patients with CDRCC was presented, potentially helping urologists to make a better risk stratification.Ruotao XiaoCheng LiuWei HeLulin MaHindawi LimitedarticleMedicineRENBioMed Research International, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R
spellingShingle	Medicine R Ruotao Xiao Cheng Liu Wei He Lulin Ma Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma
description	Background. Collecting duct renal cell carcinoma (CDRCC) is a rare type of renal cancer characterized by a poor prognosis. The aim of this work was to develop a nomogram predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with CDRCC. Methods. A total of 324 eligible patients diagnosed with CDRCC from 2004 to 2015 were identified using the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS of these patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with OS and CSS. The nomogram was developed based on these factors and evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves using the bootstrap resample method. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was also compared with the manual of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC). Results. The estimated 1-, -3, and 5-year OS and CSS rates in the analytic cohorts were 56.4% and 60%, 32.5% and 37.3%, and 28.7% and 33.6%, respectively. The multivariate model revealed that age, tumor size, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, surgical type, and chemotherapy were independent predicted factors for OS, while tumor size, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, surgical type, and chemotherapy were independently linked to CSS. A nomogram was developed using these factors with relatively good discrimination and calibration. The C-index for OS and CSS was 0.764 (95% CI: 0.735~0.793) and 0.783 (95% CI: 0.754~0.812), which was superior to the AJCC stage (C-index: 0.685 (95% CI: 0.654~0.716) and 0.703 (95% CI: 0.672~0.734)). Patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups according to the total points calculated by the nomogram. Patients in the low-risk group (97 mo and not reached) experienced significantly long median OS and CSS compared to the intermediate-risk (17 mo and 18 mo) and high-risk groups (5 mo for both). The calibration curves showed a good agreement between the predicted and actual probability related to OS and CSS. Conclusion. CDRCC has an aggressively biologic behavior with relatively poor prognosis. A survival prediction nomogram making an individualized evaluation of OS and CSS in patients with CDRCC was presented, potentially helping urologists to make a better risk stratification.
format	article
author	Ruotao Xiao Cheng Liu Wei He Lulin Ma
author_facet	Ruotao Xiao Cheng Liu Wei He Lulin Ma
author_sort	Ruotao Xiao
title	Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma
title_short	Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma
title_full	Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma
title_fullStr	Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma
title_full_unstemmed	Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma
title_sort	prognostic factors and a nomogram predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with collecting duct renal cell carcinoma
publisher	Hindawi Limited
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/df7e37aec8fb4dce91ad8802794814ba
work_keys_str_mv	AT ruotaoxiao prognosticfactorsandanomogrampredictingoverallsurvivalandcancerspecificsurvivalforpatientswithcollectingductrenalcellcarcinoma AT chengliu prognosticfactorsandanomogrampredictingoverallsurvivalandcancerspecificsurvivalforpatientswithcollectingductrenalcellcarcinoma AT weihe prognosticfactorsandanomogrampredictingoverallsurvivalandcancerspecificsurvivalforpatientswithcollectingductrenalcellcarcinoma AT lulinma prognosticfactorsandanomogrampredictingoverallsurvivalandcancerspecificsurvivalforpatientswithcollectingductrenalcellcarcinoma
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Prognostic Factors and a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients with Collecting Duct Renal Cell Carcinoma

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