Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

Abstract As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coa...

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Autores principales:	Patrick L. Barnard, Jenifer E. Dugan, Henry M. Page, Nathan J. Wood, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Daniel R. Cayan, Li H. Erikson, David M. Hubbard, Monique R. Myers, John M. Melack, Sam F. Iacobellis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/dfb2c90d33e344d9b338db105536d413
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:dfb2c90d33e344d9b338db105536d4132021-12-02T16:06:44ZMultiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems10.1038/s41598-021-94942-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/dfb2c90d33e344d9b338db105536d4132021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94942-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.Patrick L. BarnardJenifer E. DuganHenry M. PageNathan J. WoodJuliette A. Finzi HartDaniel R. CayanLi H. EriksonDavid M. HubbardMonique R. MyersJohn M. MelackSam F. IacobellisNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Patrick L. Barnard Jenifer E. Dugan Henry M. Page Nathan J. Wood Juliette A. Finzi Hart Daniel R. Cayan Li H. Erikson David M. Hubbard Monique R. Myers John M. Melack Sam F. Iacobellis Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
description	Abstract As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.
format	article
author	Patrick L. Barnard Jenifer E. Dugan Henry M. Page Nathan J. Wood Juliette A. Finzi Hart Daniel R. Cayan Li H. Erikson David M. Hubbard Monique R. Myers John M. Melack Sam F. Iacobellis
author_facet	Patrick L. Barnard Jenifer E. Dugan Henry M. Page Nathan J. Wood Juliette A. Finzi Hart Daniel R. Cayan Li H. Erikson David M. Hubbard Monique R. Myers John M. Melack Sam F. Iacobellis
author_sort	Patrick L. Barnard
title	Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
title_short	Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
title_full	Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
title_fullStr	Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
title_full_unstemmed	Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
title_sort	multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/dfb2c90d33e344d9b338db105536d413
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Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

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