Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

Abstract Due to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of s...

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Autores principales:	Lennart Quante, Sven N. Willner, Robin Middelanis, Anders Levermann
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e069b5ff83b94cd0b8a0c7acb91fde65
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:e069b5ff83b94cd0b8a0c7acb91fde65
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e069b5ff83b94cd0b8a0c7acb91fde652021-12-02T16:45:40ZRegions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming10.1038/s41598-021-95979-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e069b5ff83b94cd0b8a0c7acb91fde652021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95979-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Due to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.Lennart QuanteSven N. WillnerRobin MiddelanisAnders LevermannNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lennart Quante Sven N. Willner Robin Middelanis Anders Levermann Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
description	Abstract Due to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.
format	article
author	Lennart Quante Sven N. Willner Robin Middelanis Anders Levermann
author_facet	Lennart Quante Sven N. Willner Robin Middelanis Anders Levermann
author_sort	Lennart Quante
title	Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
title_short	Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
title_full	Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
title_fullStr	Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
title_full_unstemmed	Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
title_sort	regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e069b5ff83b94cd0b8a0c7acb91fde65
work_keys_str_mv	AT lennartquante regionsofintensificationofextremesnowfallunderfuturewarming AT svennwillner regionsofintensificationofextremesnowfallunderfuturewarming AT robinmiddelanis regionsofintensificationofextremesnowfallunderfuturewarming AT anderslevermann regionsofintensificationofextremesnowfallunderfuturewarming
_version_	1718383485656236032

Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

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