Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model

Abstract Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to the initial clinical episode with symptoms suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Due to limited number of long-term follow-up studies, progression pattern from CIS to more advanced stages remains unclear. In the current study, we constructed a M...

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Autores principales:	Yuli Hou, Yujuan Jia, Jingtian Hou
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e123c15c70944e4a92b1654cfc1f3793
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e123c15c70944e4a92b1654cfc1f37932021-12-02T15:08:24ZNatural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model10.1038/s41598-018-29206-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e123c15c70944e4a92b1654cfc1f37932018-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29206-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to the initial clinical episode with symptoms suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Due to limited number of long-term follow-up studies, progression pattern from CIS to more advanced stages remains unclear. In the current study, we constructed a Markov model to simulate the natural course of CIS. The model estimated the probabilities of transition from CIS to more advanced disease stages and the duration needed for the progression. The analysis showed: (1) CIS is a solid disease identity: more than 85% of the subjects with a diagnosis of CIS progress to RRMS or more advanced stages within 20 years; (2) the reduction of life expectancy in subjects with CIS is marginal.Yuli HouYujuan JiaJingtian HouNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yuli Hou Yujuan Jia Jingtian Hou Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model
description	Abstract Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to the initial clinical episode with symptoms suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS). Due to limited number of long-term follow-up studies, progression pattern from CIS to more advanced stages remains unclear. In the current study, we constructed a Markov model to simulate the natural course of CIS. The model estimated the probabilities of transition from CIS to more advanced disease stages and the duration needed for the progression. The analysis showed: (1) CIS is a solid disease identity: more than 85% of the subjects with a diagnosis of CIS progress to RRMS or more advanced stages within 20 years; (2) the reduction of life expectancy in subjects with CIS is marginal.
format	article
author	Yuli Hou Yujuan Jia Jingtian Hou
author_facet	Yuli Hou Yujuan Jia Jingtian Hou
author_sort	Yuli Hou
title	Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model
title_short	Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model
title_full	Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model
title_fullStr	Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model
title_full_unstemmed	Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model
title_sort	natural course of clinically isolated syndrome: a longitudinal analysis using a markov model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/e123c15c70944e4a92b1654cfc1f3793
work_keys_str_mv	AT yulihou naturalcourseofclinicallyisolatedsyndromealongitudinalanalysisusingamarkovmodel AT yujuanjia naturalcourseofclinicallyisolatedsyndromealongitudinalanalysisusingamarkovmodel AT jingtianhou naturalcourseofclinicallyisolatedsyndromealongitudinalanalysisusingamarkovmodel
_version_	1718388155575435264

Natural Course of Clinically Isolated Syndrome: A Longitudinal Analysis Using a Markov Model

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