Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change

The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's futu...

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Autores principales:	Sarfaraz Alam, Md. Mostafa Ali, Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman, Zahidul Islam
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	brahmaputra river basin climate change multivariate linear regression streamflow swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e1ccf72d51e041359b3bdf48ee440613
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e1ccf72d51e041359b3bdf48ee4406132021-11-05T19:02:21ZMulti-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.286https://doaj.org/article/e1ccf72d51e041359b3bdf48ee4406132021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/2026https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's future water availability, most of those are based on limited climate change scenarios despite the wide range of uncertainties in different climate model projections. This study aims to provide a better estimation of projected future streamflow for a combination of 18 climate change scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model of the basin and simulate the future water availability based on these climate change scenarios. Our results show that the simulated mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow of the basin is expected to increase in future. By the end of the 21st century, the projected increase in mean annual, mean dry season, mean wet season, and annual maximum streamflow is about 25, 178, 11, and 22%, respectively. We also demonstrate that this projected streamflow can be expressed as a multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin and would be very useful for policy makers to make informed decision regarding climate change adaptation. HIGHLIGHTS Mean annual streamflow of the Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB) is expected to increase gradually over the 21st century.; Annual maximum streamflow is projected to increase by about 22% indicating a higher peak in the future flood events.; The projected mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow can be expressed as multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation.;Sarfaraz AlamMd. Mostafa AliAhmmed Zulfiqar RahamanZahidul IslamIWA Publishingarticlebrahmaputra river basinclimate changemultivariate linear regressionstreamflowswatEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp 2026-2044 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	brahmaputra river basin climate change multivariate linear regression streamflow swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	brahmaputra river basin climate change multivariate linear regression streamflow swat Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Sarfaraz Alam Md. Mostafa Ali Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman Zahidul Islam Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change
description	The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's future water availability, most of those are based on limited climate change scenarios despite the wide range of uncertainties in different climate model projections. This study aims to provide a better estimation of projected future streamflow for a combination of 18 climate change scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model of the basin and simulate the future water availability based on these climate change scenarios. Our results show that the simulated mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow of the basin is expected to increase in future. By the end of the 21st century, the projected increase in mean annual, mean dry season, mean wet season, and annual maximum streamflow is about 25, 178, 11, and 22%, respectively. We also demonstrate that this projected streamflow can be expressed as a multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin and would be very useful for policy makers to make informed decision regarding climate change adaptation. HIGHLIGHTS Mean annual streamflow of the Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB) is expected to increase gradually over the 21st century.; Annual maximum streamflow is projected to increase by about 22% indicating a higher peak in the future flood events.; The projected mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow can be expressed as multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation.;
format	article
author	Sarfaraz Alam Md. Mostafa Ali Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman Zahidul Islam
author_facet	Sarfaraz Alam Md. Mostafa Ali Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman Zahidul Islam
author_sort	Sarfaraz Alam
title	Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change
title_short	Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change
title_full	Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change
title_fullStr	Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change
title_full_unstemmed	Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change
title_sort	multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of brahmaputra river basin under the impact of climate change
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e1ccf72d51e041359b3bdf48ee440613
work_keys_str_mv	AT sarfarazalam multimodelensembleprojectionofmeanandextremestreamflowofbrahmaputrariverbasinundertheimpactofclimatechange AT mdmostafaali multimodelensembleprojectionofmeanandextremestreamflowofbrahmaputrariverbasinundertheimpactofclimatechange AT ahmmedzulfiqarrahaman multimodelensembleprojectionofmeanandextremestreamflowofbrahmaputrariverbasinundertheimpactofclimatechange AT zahidulislam multimodelensembleprojectionofmeanandextremestreamflowofbrahmaputrariverbasinundertheimpactofclimatechange
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Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change

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