Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model

Abstract The age-specific seroclearance pattern of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections of China remains unclear. In this study, based on three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we propose an age- and time-dependent discrete model and use...

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Autores principales:	Jian Zu, Guihua Zhuang, Peifeng Liang, Fuqiang Cui, Fuzhen Wang, Hui Zheng, Xiaofeng Liang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e309c2187c534e8eb45419548cdd361a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e309c2187c534e8eb45419548cdd361a2021-12-02T15:05:21ZEstimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model10.1038/s41598-017-03080-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e309c2187c534e8eb45419548cdd361a2017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03080-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The age-specific seroclearance pattern of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections of China remains unclear. In this study, based on three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we propose an age- and time-dependent discrete model and use the method of non-linear least squares to estimate the age-specific annual rate of HBsAg seroclearance. We found that the HBsAg seroclearance in chronic HBV infections of China aged 1–59 years occurred at an average annual rate of 1.80% (95% CI, 1.54–2.06%) from 1993 to 2006. The HBsAg seroclearance occurred predominantly in the early childhood, 20–24 and 35–39 year age groups. Moreover, our model estimated that HBsAg seroclearance resulted in 23.38% of the decrease of total HBsAg prevalence for population aged 1–59 years in 2006. It also prevented 9.30% of new HBV infections (about 7.43 million people) and 9.95% of HBV-related deaths (about 0.25 million people) from 1993 to 2006. This study develops a new and efficient method to estimate the age-specific incidence of HBsAg seroclearance at a population-level and evaluate its effect.Jian ZuGuihua ZhuangPeifeng LiangFuqiang CuiFuzhen WangHui ZhengXiaofeng LiangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jian Zu Guihua Zhuang Peifeng Liang Fuqiang Cui Fuzhen Wang Hui Zheng Xiaofeng Liang Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model
description	Abstract The age-specific seroclearance pattern of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections of China remains unclear. In this study, based on three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we propose an age- and time-dependent discrete model and use the method of non-linear least squares to estimate the age-specific annual rate of HBsAg seroclearance. We found that the HBsAg seroclearance in chronic HBV infections of China aged 1–59 years occurred at an average annual rate of 1.80% (95% CI, 1.54–2.06%) from 1993 to 2006. The HBsAg seroclearance occurred predominantly in the early childhood, 20–24 and 35–39 year age groups. Moreover, our model estimated that HBsAg seroclearance resulted in 23.38% of the decrease of total HBsAg prevalence for population aged 1–59 years in 2006. It also prevented 9.30% of new HBV infections (about 7.43 million people) and 9.95% of HBV-related deaths (about 0.25 million people) from 1993 to 2006. This study develops a new and efficient method to estimate the age-specific incidence of HBsAg seroclearance at a population-level and evaluate its effect.
format	article
author	Jian Zu Guihua Zhuang Peifeng Liang Fuqiang Cui Fuzhen Wang Hui Zheng Xiaofeng Liang
author_facet	Jian Zu Guihua Zhuang Peifeng Liang Fuqiang Cui Fuzhen Wang Hui Zheng Xiaofeng Liang
author_sort	Jian Zu
title	Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model
title_short	Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model
title_full	Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model
title_fullStr	Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model
title_sort	estimating age-related incidence of hbsag seroclearance in chronic hepatitis b virus infections of china by using a dynamic compartmental model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/e309c2187c534e8eb45419548cdd361a
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Estimating age-related incidence of HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B virus infections of China by using a dynamic compartmental model

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