Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis

Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects...

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Autores principales:	Minglu Wang, Bruce A. McCarl
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change land use livestock species adaptation United States Agriculture S
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e333409073fe457f9b23997eb41276bb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e333409073fe457f9b23997eb41276bb2021-11-25T18:10:07ZImpacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis10.3390/land101112602073-445Xhttps://doaj.org/article/e333409073fe457f9b23997eb41276bb2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1260https://doaj.org/toc/2073-445XLivestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.Minglu WangBruce A. McCarlMDPI AGarticleclimate changeland uselivestock speciesadaptationUnited StatesAgricultureSENLand, Vol 10, Iss 1260, p 1260 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change land use livestock species adaptation United States Agriculture S
spellingShingle	climate change land use livestock species adaptation United States Agriculture S Minglu Wang Bruce A. McCarl Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis
description	Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.
format	article
author	Minglu Wang Bruce A. McCarl
author_facet	Minglu Wang Bruce A. McCarl
author_sort	Minglu Wang
title	Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis
title_short	Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis
title_full	Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis
title_fullStr	Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis
title_full_unstemmed	Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis
title_sort	impacts of climate change on livestock location in the us: a statistical analysis
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e333409073fe457f9b23997eb41276bb
work_keys_str_mv	AT mingluwang impactsofclimatechangeonlivestocklocationintheusastatisticalanalysis AT bruceamccarl impactsofclimatechangeonlivestocklocationintheusastatisticalanalysis
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Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis

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