Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
<p>Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Copernicus Publications
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/e358d55940f5436fb4576d4086e9b137 |
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| Sumario: | <p>Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing
the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar
radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We
use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP6) for a mitigation (SSP1-2.6) and a fossil-fuel-dependent
(SSP5-8.5) pathway in order to quantify climate risk for solar PV in Europe as
simulated by the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE). We find that PV
potential increases by around 5 % in the mitigation scenario, suggesting a
positive feedback loop between climate change mitigation and PV potential.
While increased clear-sky radiation and reduced cloud cover go hand in hand
in SSP1-2.6, the effect of a decrease in clear-sky radiation is outweighed
by a decrease in cloud cover in SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase in
all-sky radiation. Moreover, we find that the seasonal cycle of PV
generation changes in most places, as generation grows more strongly in
winter than in summer (SSP1-2.6) or increases in summer and declines in
winter (SSP5-8.5). We further analyze climate change impacts on the spatial
variability of PV power generation. Similar to the effects anticipated for wind
energy, we report an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV
production with large inter-model agreement yet relatively small amplitude,
implying that PV power balancing between different regions in continental
Europe will become more difficult in the future. Thus, based on the most recent
climate simulations, this research supports the notion that climate
change will only marginally impact renewable energy potential, while changes
in the spatiotemporal generation structure are to be expected and should be
included in power system design.</p> |
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