Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6

<p>Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	X. Hou, M. Wild, D. Folini, S. Kazadzis, J. Wohland
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e358d55940f5436fb4576d4086e9b137
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:e358d55940f5436fb4576d4086e9b137
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e358d55940f5436fb4576d4086e9b1372021-11-09T09:30:35ZClimate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP610.5194/esd-12-1099-20212190-49792190-4987https://doaj.org/article/e358d55940f5436fb4576d4086e9b1372021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1099/2021/esd-12-1099-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987<p>Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for a mitigation (SSP1-2.6) and a fossil-fuel-dependent (SSP5-8.5) pathway in order to quantify climate risk for solar PV in Europe as simulated by the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE). We find that PV potential increases by around 5 % in the mitigation scenario, suggesting a positive feedback loop between climate change mitigation and PV potential. While increased clear-sky radiation and reduced cloud cover go hand in hand in SSP1-2.6, the effect of a decrease in clear-sky radiation is outweighed by a decrease in cloud cover in SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase in all-sky radiation. Moreover, we find that the seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places, as generation grows more strongly in winter than in summer (SSP1-2.6) or increases in summer and declines in winter (SSP5-8.5). We further analyze climate change impacts on the spatial variability of PV power generation. Similar to the effects anticipated for wind energy, we report an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production with large inter-model agreement yet relatively small amplitude, implying that PV power balancing between different regions in continental Europe will become more difficult in the future. Thus, based on the most recent climate simulations, this research supports the notion that climate change will only marginally impact renewable energy potential, while changes in the spatiotemporal generation structure are to be expected and should be included in power system design.</p>X. HouX. HouM. WildD. FoliniS. KazadzisJ. WohlandCopernicus PublicationsarticleScienceQGeologyQE1-996.5Dynamic and structural geologyQE500-639.5ENEarth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 1099-1113 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5
spellingShingle	Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 X. Hou X. Hou M. Wild D. Folini S. Kazadzis J. Wohland Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
description	<p>Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for a mitigation (SSP1-2.6) and a fossil-fuel-dependent (SSP5-8.5) pathway in order to quantify climate risk for solar PV in Europe as simulated by the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE). We find that PV potential increases by around 5 % in the mitigation scenario, suggesting a positive feedback loop between climate change mitigation and PV potential. While increased clear-sky radiation and reduced cloud cover go hand in hand in SSP1-2.6, the effect of a decrease in clear-sky radiation is outweighed by a decrease in cloud cover in SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase in all-sky radiation. Moreover, we find that the seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places, as generation grows more strongly in winter than in summer (SSP1-2.6) or increases in summer and declines in winter (SSP5-8.5). We further analyze climate change impacts on the spatial variability of PV power generation. Similar to the effects anticipated for wind energy, we report an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production with large inter-model agreement yet relatively small amplitude, implying that PV power balancing between different regions in continental Europe will become more difficult in the future. Thus, based on the most recent climate simulations, this research supports the notion that climate change will only marginally impact renewable energy potential, while changes in the spatiotemporal generation structure are to be expected and should be included in power system design.</p>
format	article
author	X. Hou X. Hou M. Wild D. Folini S. Kazadzis J. Wohland
author_facet	X. Hou X. Hou M. Wild D. Folini S. Kazadzis J. Wohland
author_sort	X. Hou
title	Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
title_short	Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
title_full	Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
title_fullStr	Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
title_sort	climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in europe based on cmip6
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e358d55940f5436fb4576d4086e9b137
work_keys_str_mv	AT xhou climatechangeimpactsonsolarpowergenerationanditsspatialvariabilityineuropebasedoncmip6 AT xhou climatechangeimpactsonsolarpowergenerationanditsspatialvariabilityineuropebasedoncmip6 AT mwild climatechangeimpactsonsolarpowergenerationanditsspatialvariabilityineuropebasedoncmip6 AT dfolini climatechangeimpactsonsolarpowergenerationanditsspatialvariabilityineuropebasedoncmip6 AT skazadzis climatechangeimpactsonsolarpowergenerationanditsspatialvariabilityineuropebasedoncmip6 AT jwohland climatechangeimpactsonsolarpowergenerationanditsspatialvariabilityineuropebasedoncmip6
_version_	1718441254157549568

Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6

Ejemplares similares