Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use

Predictive models are sorely needed to guide the management of harvested natural resources worldwide, yet existing frameworks fail to integrate the dynamic and interacting governance processes driving unsustainable use. We developed a new framework in which the conflicting interests of three key sta...

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Autores principales:	Jeremy J. Cusack, A. Bradley. Duthie, Jeroen Minderman, Isabel L. Jones, Rocío A. Pozo, O. Sarobidy. Rakotonarivo, Steve Redpath, Nils Bunnefeld
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Resilience Alliance 2020
Materias:	conservation decision making genetic algorithm governance harvest regulation iucn management strategy evaluation population target trend user wildlife Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e42e979f81bc4fa281105719a6fcc93b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e42e979f81bc4fa281105719a6fcc93b2021-12-02T11:00:00ZIntegrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use1708-308710.5751/ES-11552-250213https://doaj.org/article/e42e979f81bc4fa281105719a6fcc93b2020-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol25/iss2/art13/https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087Predictive models are sorely needed to guide the management of harvested natural resources worldwide, yet existing frameworks fail to integrate the dynamic and interacting governance processes driving unsustainable use. We developed a new framework in which the conflicting interests of three key stakeholders are modeled: managers seeking sustainability, users seeking increases in harvest quota, and conservationists seeking harvest restrictions. Our model allows stakeholder groups to influence management decisions and illegal harvest through flexible functions that reflect widespread lobbying and noncompliance processes. Decision making is modeled through the use of a genetic algorithm, which allows stakeholders to respond to a dynamic social-ecological environment to satisfy their goals. To provide the critical link between conceptual and empirical approaches, we compare predictions from our model against data on 206 harvested terrestrial species from the IUCN Red List. We show that, although lobbying for a ban on resource use can offset low levels of noncompliance, such bias leads to an increased risk of extinction when noncompliance (and therefore illegal harvesting) is high. Management decisions unaffected by lobbying, combined with high rule compliance, resulted in more sustainable resource use. Model predictions were strongly reflected in our analysis of harvested IUCN species, with 81% of those classified under regulated harvest and high compliance showing stable or increasing population trends. Our results highlight the fine balance between maintaining compliance and biasing decisions in the face of lobbying. They also emphasize the urgent need to quantify lobbying and compliance processes across a range of natural resources. Overall, our work provides a holistic and versatile approach to addressing complex social processes underlying the mismanagement of natural resources.Jeremy J. CusackA. Bradley. DuthieJeroen MindermanIsabel L. JonesRocío A. PozoO. Sarobidy. RakotonarivoSteve RedpathNils BunnefeldResilience Alliancearticleconservationdecision makinggenetic algorithmgovernanceharvest regulationiucnmanagement strategy evaluationpopulation targettrenduserwildlifeBiology (General)QH301-705.5EcologyQH540-549.5ENEcology and Society, Vol 25, Iss 2, p 13 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	conservation decision making genetic algorithm governance harvest regulation iucn management strategy evaluation population target trend user wildlife Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	conservation decision making genetic algorithm governance harvest regulation iucn management strategy evaluation population target trend user wildlife Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 Jeremy J. Cusack A. Bradley. Duthie Jeroen Minderman Isabel L. Jones Rocío A. Pozo O. Sarobidy. Rakotonarivo Steve Redpath Nils Bunnefeld Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
description	Predictive models are sorely needed to guide the management of harvested natural resources worldwide, yet existing frameworks fail to integrate the dynamic and interacting governance processes driving unsustainable use. We developed a new framework in which the conflicting interests of three key stakeholders are modeled: managers seeking sustainability, users seeking increases in harvest quota, and conservationists seeking harvest restrictions. Our model allows stakeholder groups to influence management decisions and illegal harvest through flexible functions that reflect widespread lobbying and noncompliance processes. Decision making is modeled through the use of a genetic algorithm, which allows stakeholders to respond to a dynamic social-ecological environment to satisfy their goals. To provide the critical link between conceptual and empirical approaches, we compare predictions from our model against data on 206 harvested terrestrial species from the IUCN Red List. We show that, although lobbying for a ban on resource use can offset low levels of noncompliance, such bias leads to an increased risk of extinction when noncompliance (and therefore illegal harvesting) is high. Management decisions unaffected by lobbying, combined with high rule compliance, resulted in more sustainable resource use. Model predictions were strongly reflected in our analysis of harvested IUCN species, with 81% of those classified under regulated harvest and high compliance showing stable or increasing population trends. Our results highlight the fine balance between maintaining compliance and biasing decisions in the face of lobbying. They also emphasize the urgent need to quantify lobbying and compliance processes across a range of natural resources. Overall, our work provides a holistic and versatile approach to addressing complex social processes underlying the mismanagement of natural resources.
format	article
author	Jeremy J. Cusack A. Bradley. Duthie Jeroen Minderman Isabel L. Jones Rocío A. Pozo O. Sarobidy. Rakotonarivo Steve Redpath Nils Bunnefeld
author_facet	Jeremy J. Cusack A. Bradley. Duthie Jeroen Minderman Isabel L. Jones Rocío A. Pozo O. Sarobidy. Rakotonarivo Steve Redpath Nils Bunnefeld
author_sort	Jeremy J. Cusack
title	Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
title_short	Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
title_full	Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
title_fullStr	Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
title_full_unstemmed	Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
title_sort	integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use
publisher	Resilience Alliance
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/e42e979f81bc4fa281105719a6fcc93b
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeremyjcusack integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT abradleyduthie integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT jeroenminderman integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT isabelljones integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT rocioapozo integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT osarobidyrakotonarivo integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT steveredpath integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse AT nilsbunnefeld integratingconflictlobbyingandcompliancetopredictthesustainabilityofnaturalresourceuse
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Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use

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