Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution

Abstract The urban population is predicted to reach a 70% share of global population by mid-century. Future urbanization might be directed along several development typologies, e.g. sprawling urbanization, more compact cities, greener cities, or a combination of different typologies. These developme...

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Autores principales:	Laura Grunwald, Stephan Weber
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Springer 2021
Materias:	Urban cold-air paths Machine learning Urban climate Land-use change Urban development Cities. Urban geography GF125
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e4a1f05cffa34f52a09b9ad86e30be72
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e4a1f05cffa34f52a09b9ad86e30be722021-11-21T12:14:50ZInfluence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution10.1007/s43762-021-00026-72730-6852https://doaj.org/article/e4a1f05cffa34f52a09b9ad86e30be722021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s43762-021-00026-7https://doaj.org/toc/2730-6852Abstract The urban population is predicted to reach a 70% share of global population by mid-century. Future urbanization might be directed along several development typologies, e.g. sprawling urbanization, more compact cities, greener cities, or a combination of different typologies. These developments induce urban land-use change that will affect urban climate and might reinforce phenomena such as the urban heat island and thermal discomfort of urban residents. A planning-based mitigation approach to ensure thermal comfort of residents are urban cold-air paths, i.e. low-roughness areas enabling drainage and transport of colder air masses from rural surroundings. We study how urban land-use change scenarios influence cold-air path occurrence probability and spatial distribution in a mid-European city using a machine learning approach, i.e. boosted regression trees. The Urban Sprawl Scenario results in the strongest reduction of cold-air path area by 3.6% in comparison to the reference case. The Green City Scenario gives evidence for an increase of cold-air path area (2.2%) whereas the Compact Green City Scenario partly counteracts the negative influence of urban densification by increased fractions of vegetated areas. The proposed method allows for the identification of priority areas for cold-air path preservation in urban planning.Laura GrunwaldStephan WeberSpringerarticleUrban cold-air pathsMachine learningUrban climateLand-use changeUrban developmentCities. Urban geographyGF125ENComputational Urban Science, Vol 1, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Urban cold-air paths Machine learning Urban climate Land-use change Urban development Cities. Urban geography GF125
spellingShingle	Urban cold-air paths Machine learning Urban climate Land-use change Urban development Cities. Urban geography GF125 Laura Grunwald Stephan Weber Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
description	Abstract The urban population is predicted to reach a 70% share of global population by mid-century. Future urbanization might be directed along several development typologies, e.g. sprawling urbanization, more compact cities, greener cities, or a combination of different typologies. These developments induce urban land-use change that will affect urban climate and might reinforce phenomena such as the urban heat island and thermal discomfort of urban residents. A planning-based mitigation approach to ensure thermal comfort of residents are urban cold-air paths, i.e. low-roughness areas enabling drainage and transport of colder air masses from rural surroundings. We study how urban land-use change scenarios influence cold-air path occurrence probability and spatial distribution in a mid-European city using a machine learning approach, i.e. boosted regression trees. The Urban Sprawl Scenario results in the strongest reduction of cold-air path area by 3.6% in comparison to the reference case. The Green City Scenario gives evidence for an increase of cold-air path area (2.2%) whereas the Compact Green City Scenario partly counteracts the negative influence of urban densification by increased fractions of vegetated areas. The proposed method allows for the identification of priority areas for cold-air path preservation in urban planning.
format	article
author	Laura Grunwald Stephan Weber
author_facet	Laura Grunwald Stephan Weber
author_sort	Laura Grunwald
title	Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
title_short	Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
title_full	Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
title_fullStr	Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
title_full_unstemmed	Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
title_sort	influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution
publisher	Springer
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e4a1f05cffa34f52a09b9ad86e30be72
work_keys_str_mv	AT lauragrunwald influenceofurbanlandusechangeoncoldairpathoccurrenceandspatialdistribution AT stephanweber influenceofurbanlandusechangeoncoldairpathoccurrenceandspatialdistribution
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Influence of urban land-use change on cold-air path occurrence and spatial distribution

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