Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach

Abstract There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised temperature anomalies and trends in the studied time se...

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Autores principales:	Miklós Vincze, Ion Dan Borcia, Uwe Harlander
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e4d2540917804ac484dfe6df57a76b88
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e4d2540917804ac484dfe6df57a76b882021-12-02T12:30:18ZTemperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach10.1038/s41598-017-00319-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e4d2540917804ac484dfe6df57a76b882017-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00319-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised temperature anomalies and trends in the studied time series which may be difficult to separate from time-evolving fluctuations. Some argue that temperature variability is indeed increasing globally, whereas others conclude it is decreasing or remains practically unchanged. Meanwhile, a consensus appears to emerge that local variability in certain regions (e.g. Western Europe and North America) has indeed been increasing in the past 40 years. Here we investigate the nature of connections between external forcing and climate variability conceptually by using a laboratory-scale minimal model of mid-latitude atmospheric thermal convection subject to continuously decreasing ‘equator-to-pole’ temperature contrast ΔT, mimicking climate change. The analysis of temperature records from an ensemble of experimental runs (‘realisations’) all driven by identical time-dependent external forcing reveals that the collective variability of the ensemble and that of individual realisations may be markedly different – a property to be considered when interpreting climate records.Miklós VinczeIon Dan BorciaUwe HarlanderNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Miklós Vincze Ion Dan Borcia Uwe Harlander Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
description	Abstract There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised temperature anomalies and trends in the studied time series which may be difficult to separate from time-evolving fluctuations. Some argue that temperature variability is indeed increasing globally, whereas others conclude it is decreasing or remains practically unchanged. Meanwhile, a consensus appears to emerge that local variability in certain regions (e.g. Western Europe and North America) has indeed been increasing in the past 40 years. Here we investigate the nature of connections between external forcing and climate variability conceptually by using a laboratory-scale minimal model of mid-latitude atmospheric thermal convection subject to continuously decreasing ‘equator-to-pole’ temperature contrast ΔT, mimicking climate change. The analysis of temperature records from an ensemble of experimental runs (‘realisations’) all driven by identical time-dependent external forcing reveals that the collective variability of the ensemble and that of individual realisations may be markedly different – a property to be considered when interpreting climate records.
format	article
author	Miklós Vincze Ion Dan Borcia Uwe Harlander
author_facet	Miklós Vincze Ion Dan Borcia Uwe Harlander
author_sort	Miklós Vincze
title	Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
title_short	Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
title_full	Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
title_fullStr	Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
title_full_unstemmed	Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
title_sort	temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/e4d2540917804ac484dfe6df57a76b88
work_keys_str_mv	AT miklosvincze temperaturefluctuationsinachangingclimateanensemblebasedexperimentalapproach AT iondanborcia temperaturefluctuationsinachangingclimateanensemblebasedexperimentalapproach AT uweharlander temperaturefluctuationsinachangingclimateanensemblebasedexperimentalapproach
_version_	1718394429531750400

Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an ensemble-based experimental approach

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