Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators

Climate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in coll...

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Autores principales:	John T. Delaney, Kristen L. Bouska, Josh D. Eash, Patricia J. Heglund, Andrew J. Allstadt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Climate change Vulnerability Indicator Watershed modeling Hotspot mapping Adaptive capacity Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e4f7f2eddd69467496ff604b14296063
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e4f7f2eddd69467496ff604b142960632021-12-01T04:48:33ZMapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107581https://doaj.org/article/e4f7f2eddd69467496ff604b142960632021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21002466https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XClimate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with land managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the midwestern United States with a focus on riparian systems. The map is intended for use by regional administrators to help them work across various program areas (e.g. fisheries, endangered species) to prioritize locations needing support for adaptation planning. The tool can also be utilized locally by managers to better understand the effects that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies. The vulnerability map is watershed-based (360 watershed units within the region) and combines 15 climate change indicators that were selected by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service natural resource managers based upon known and anticipated effects to species and habitats. The projected change in each of these indicators from the historical period (1986–2005) to the future period (2040–2059) was aggregated into a composite score for each watershed. Landscape-scale metrics reflective of a watershed’s adaptive capacity were combined with the climate change indicators to produce a vulnerability score. We found sub-regional variation in vulnerability to climate change with the greatest vulnerability in Iowa, central Illinois, and northwest Ohio. Greater vulnerability was seen in the higher greenhouse gas concentration scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 compared to the lower greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP 4.5, when looking at the mean of the five downscaled climate models used in this study. By quantifying and mapping climate change vulnerability, natural resource managers can better understand the degree of vulnerability for individual watersheds and identify areas of prioritization in regional and local planning efforts.John T. DelaneyKristen L. BouskaJosh D. EashPatricia J. HeglundAndrew J. AllstadtElsevierarticleClimate changeVulnerabilityIndicatorWatershed modelingHotspot mappingAdaptive capacityEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 125, Iss , Pp 107581- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Climate change Vulnerability Indicator Watershed modeling Hotspot mapping Adaptive capacity Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Climate change Vulnerability Indicator Watershed modeling Hotspot mapping Adaptive capacity Ecology QH540-549.5 John T. Delaney Kristen L. Bouska Josh D. Eash Patricia J. Heglund Andrew J. Allstadt Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
description	Climate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with land managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the midwestern United States with a focus on riparian systems. The map is intended for use by regional administrators to help them work across various program areas (e.g. fisheries, endangered species) to prioritize locations needing support for adaptation planning. The tool can also be utilized locally by managers to better understand the effects that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies. The vulnerability map is watershed-based (360 watershed units within the region) and combines 15 climate change indicators that were selected by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service natural resource managers based upon known and anticipated effects to species and habitats. The projected change in each of these indicators from the historical period (1986–2005) to the future period (2040–2059) was aggregated into a composite score for each watershed. Landscape-scale metrics reflective of a watershed’s adaptive capacity were combined with the climate change indicators to produce a vulnerability score. We found sub-regional variation in vulnerability to climate change with the greatest vulnerability in Iowa, central Illinois, and northwest Ohio. Greater vulnerability was seen in the higher greenhouse gas concentration scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 compared to the lower greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP 4.5, when looking at the mean of the five downscaled climate models used in this study. By quantifying and mapping climate change vulnerability, natural resource managers can better understand the degree of vulnerability for individual watersheds and identify areas of prioritization in regional and local planning efforts.
format	article
author	John T. Delaney Kristen L. Bouska Josh D. Eash Patricia J. Heglund Andrew J. Allstadt
author_facet	John T. Delaney Kristen L. Bouska Josh D. Eash Patricia J. Heglund Andrew J. Allstadt
author_sort	John T. Delaney
title	Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
title_short	Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
title_full	Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
title_fullStr	Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
title_full_unstemmed	Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
title_sort	mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e4f7f2eddd69467496ff604b14296063
work_keys_str_mv	AT johntdelaney mappingclimatechangevulnerabilityofaquaticriparianecosystemsusingdecisionrelevantindicators AT kristenlbouska mappingclimatechangevulnerabilityofaquaticriparianecosystemsusingdecisionrelevantindicators AT joshdeash mappingclimatechangevulnerabilityofaquaticriparianecosystemsusingdecisionrelevantindicators AT patriciajheglund mappingclimatechangevulnerabilityofaquaticriparianecosystemsusingdecisionrelevantindicators AT andrewjallstadt mappingclimatechangevulnerabilityofaquaticriparianecosystemsusingdecisionrelevantindicators
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Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators

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