Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.

The development and deployment of several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a little over a year is an unprecedented achievement of modern medicine. The high levels of efficacy against transmission for some of these vaccines makes it feasible to use them to suppress SARS-CoV-2 altogether in regions with high v...

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Autores principales:	Debra Van Egeren, Madison Stoddard, Alexander Novokhodko, Michael S Rogers, Diane Joseph-McCarthy, Bruce Zetter, Arijit Chakravarty
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e511335d15b14ea08376aac679b5be1b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e511335d15b14ea08376aac679b5be1b2021-12-02T20:16:10ZRapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0258997https://doaj.org/article/e511335d15b14ea08376aac679b5be1b2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258997https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The development and deployment of several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a little over a year is an unprecedented achievement of modern medicine. The high levels of efficacy against transmission for some of these vaccines makes it feasible to use them to suppress SARS-CoV-2 altogether in regions with high vaccine acceptance. However, viral variants with reduced susceptibility to vaccinal and natural immunity threaten the utility of vaccines, particularly in scenarios where a return to pre-pandemic conditions occurs before the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work we model the situation in the United States in May-June 2021, to demonstrate how pre-existing variants of SARS-CoV-2 may cause a rebound wave of COVID-19 in a matter of months under a certain set of conditions. A high burden of morbidity (and likely mortality) remains possible, even if the vaccines are partially effective against new variants and widely accepted. Our modeling suggests that variants that are already present within the population may be capable of quickly defeating the vaccines as a public health intervention, a serious potential limitation for strategies that emphasize rapid reopening before achieving control of SARS-CoV-2.Debra Van EgerenMadison StoddardAlexander NovokhodkoMichael S RogersDiane Joseph-McCarthyBruce ZetterArijit ChakravartyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11, p e0258997 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Debra Van Egeren Madison Stoddard Alexander Novokhodko Michael S Rogers Diane Joseph-McCarthy Bruce Zetter Arijit Chakravarty Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.
description	The development and deployment of several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a little over a year is an unprecedented achievement of modern medicine. The high levels of efficacy against transmission for some of these vaccines makes it feasible to use them to suppress SARS-CoV-2 altogether in regions with high vaccine acceptance. However, viral variants with reduced susceptibility to vaccinal and natural immunity threaten the utility of vaccines, particularly in scenarios where a return to pre-pandemic conditions occurs before the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work we model the situation in the United States in May-June 2021, to demonstrate how pre-existing variants of SARS-CoV-2 may cause a rebound wave of COVID-19 in a matter of months under a certain set of conditions. A high burden of morbidity (and likely mortality) remains possible, even if the vaccines are partially effective against new variants and widely accepted. Our modeling suggests that variants that are already present within the population may be capable of quickly defeating the vaccines as a public health intervention, a serious potential limitation for strategies that emphasize rapid reopening before achieving control of SARS-CoV-2.
format	article
author	Debra Van Egeren Madison Stoddard Alexander Novokhodko Michael S Rogers Diane Joseph-McCarthy Bruce Zetter Arijit Chakravarty
author_facet	Debra Van Egeren Madison Stoddard Alexander Novokhodko Michael S Rogers Diane Joseph-McCarthy Bruce Zetter Arijit Chakravarty
author_sort	Debra Van Egeren
title	Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.
title_short	Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.
title_full	Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.
title_fullStr	Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.
title_full_unstemmed	Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.
title_sort	rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of sars-cov-2 variants: a model-based analysis.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e511335d15b14ea08376aac679b5be1b
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Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.

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