Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting...

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Autores principales:	Fernanda Casagrande, Francisco A. B. Neto, Ronald B. de Souza, Paulo Nobre
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c2372021-11-25T16:45:32ZPolar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models10.3390/atmos121114942073-4433https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c2372021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1494https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.Fernanda CasagrandeFrancisco A. B. NetoRonald B. de SouzaPaulo NobreMDPI AGarticleclimate changeParis agreementArcticAntarcticapolar amplificationice-freeMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1494, p 1494 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
description	One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.
format	article
author	Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre
author_facet	Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre
author_sort	Fernanda Casagrande
title	Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
title_short	Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
title_full	Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
title_fullStr	Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
title_full_unstemmed	Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
title_sort	polar amplification and ice free conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °c of global warming as simulated by cmip5 and cmip6 models
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237
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Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

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