Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin

Assessing climate change impact on hydrology and biomass yield of a tropical river basin is necessary for formulating a suitable coping strategy. A hydrological modelling framework was established for Subarnarekha river basin through calibration and validation of SWAT model with the observed river d...

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Autores principales:	Uday Mandal, Dipaka R. Sena, Anirban Dhar, Sudhindra N. Panda, Partha P. Adhikary, Prasanta K. Mishra
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Biomass yield Climate change GCMs-RCPs Hydrological fluxes River basin SWAT Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e6193920d5804a25aa234b1941aa9cb3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e6193920d5804a25aa234b1941aa9cb32021-12-01T04:50:25ZAssessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107646https://doaj.org/article/e6193920d5804a25aa234b1941aa9cb32021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21003113https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XAssessing climate change impact on hydrology and biomass yield of a tropical river basin is necessary for formulating a suitable coping strategy. A hydrological modelling framework was established for Subarnarekha river basin through calibration and validation of SWAT model with the observed river discharge at four gauging locations. The global sensitivity analysis was performed to establish the robustness and stability of the model to reproduce outputs resultant to various extremes of precipitation and other weather events. The 5-GCMs, namely HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, NCAR-CCSM4, CSIRO-MK3.6, and CESM1-CAM5 were analyzed and HadGEM2-ES was selected based on its performance with respect to ensemble of remaining 4 GCMs (p ≤ 0.05). The AR5-HadGEM2-ES monthly database (1 km2 resolutions) was used to generate bias factor for preparing daily climatic variables in the future projection which was employed as a forcing to simulate river discharge and other hydrological fluxes for the future climate scenario. Increase in precipitation from 14 to 36%, the runoff increased from 39.7 to 104.1%. When compared to the present period, an increase in monsoon runoff is expected 100 and 200% during 2030 and 2080, respectively. Higher degree of uncertainty in expected runoff volumes was expected in mid- and far future time period. Intra-RCP scenarios analyses indicated a significant surge in monsoon season runoff volume during 2070 and 2080 and insignificant surge during 2030 and 2050. As the basin constitute a rice ecosystem, the simulation approach involved a detailed accounting of the operational activities of a rice to realistically capture its manifestation in the annual accrual of actual evapotranspiration in the simulated hydrological fluxes. During monsoon season, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased by 2.2–12.7% and 1.0–9.0%, respectively. Following simulation output, it was found that the basin was expected to suffer a crop biomass loss of 2 to 3% due to climate change. Simple yield response technique to estimate biomass yield losses was found to be promising alternatives to complex crop modeling studies.Uday MandalDipaka R. SenaAnirban DharSudhindra N. PandaPartha P. AdhikaryPrasanta K. MishraElsevierarticleBiomass yieldClimate changeGCMs-RCPsHydrological fluxesRiver basinSWATEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 126, Iss , Pp 107646- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biomass yield Climate change GCMs-RCPs Hydrological fluxes River basin SWAT Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Biomass yield Climate change GCMs-RCPs Hydrological fluxes River basin SWAT Ecology QH540-549.5 Uday Mandal Dipaka R. Sena Anirban Dhar Sudhindra N. Panda Partha P. Adhikary Prasanta K. Mishra Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
description	Assessing climate change impact on hydrology and biomass yield of a tropical river basin is necessary for formulating a suitable coping strategy. A hydrological modelling framework was established for Subarnarekha river basin through calibration and validation of SWAT model with the observed river discharge at four gauging locations. The global sensitivity analysis was performed to establish the robustness and stability of the model to reproduce outputs resultant to various extremes of precipitation and other weather events. The 5-GCMs, namely HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, NCAR-CCSM4, CSIRO-MK3.6, and CESM1-CAM5 were analyzed and HadGEM2-ES was selected based on its performance with respect to ensemble of remaining 4 GCMs (p ≤ 0.05). The AR5-HadGEM2-ES monthly database (1 km2 resolutions) was used to generate bias factor for preparing daily climatic variables in the future projection which was employed as a forcing to simulate river discharge and other hydrological fluxes for the future climate scenario. Increase in precipitation from 14 to 36%, the runoff increased from 39.7 to 104.1%. When compared to the present period, an increase in monsoon runoff is expected 100 and 200% during 2030 and 2080, respectively. Higher degree of uncertainty in expected runoff volumes was expected in mid- and far future time period. Intra-RCP scenarios analyses indicated a significant surge in monsoon season runoff volume during 2070 and 2080 and insignificant surge during 2030 and 2050. As the basin constitute a rice ecosystem, the simulation approach involved a detailed accounting of the operational activities of a rice to realistically capture its manifestation in the annual accrual of actual evapotranspiration in the simulated hydrological fluxes. During monsoon season, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased by 2.2–12.7% and 1.0–9.0%, respectively. Following simulation output, it was found that the basin was expected to suffer a crop biomass loss of 2 to 3% due to climate change. Simple yield response technique to estimate biomass yield losses was found to be promising alternatives to complex crop modeling studies.
format	article
author	Uday Mandal Dipaka R. Sena Anirban Dhar Sudhindra N. Panda Partha P. Adhikary Prasanta K. Mishra
author_facet	Uday Mandal Dipaka R. Sena Anirban Dhar Sudhindra N. Panda Partha P. Adhikary Prasanta K. Mishra
author_sort	Uday Mandal
title	Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
title_short	Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
title_full	Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
title_fullStr	Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
title_sort	assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e6193920d5804a25aa234b1941aa9cb3
work_keys_str_mv	AT udaymandal assessmentofclimatechangeanditsimpactonhydrologicalregimesandbiomassyieldofatropicalriverbasin AT dipakarsena assessmentofclimatechangeanditsimpactonhydrologicalregimesandbiomassyieldofatropicalriverbasin AT anirbandhar assessmentofclimatechangeanditsimpactonhydrologicalregimesandbiomassyieldofatropicalriverbasin AT sudhindranpanda assessmentofclimatechangeanditsimpactonhydrologicalregimesandbiomassyieldofatropicalriverbasin AT parthapadhikary assessmentofclimatechangeanditsimpactonhydrologicalregimesandbiomassyieldofatropicalriverbasin AT prasantakmishra assessmentofclimatechangeanditsimpactonhydrologicalregimesandbiomassyieldofatropicalriverbasin
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Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin

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