The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background. Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2...

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Autores principales:	Mooketsi Molefi, John T. Tlhakanelo, Thabo Phologolo, Shimeles G. Hamda, Tiny Masupe, Billy Tsima, Vincent Setlhare, Yohana Mashalla, Douglas J. Wiebe
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Hindawi Limited 2021
Materias:	Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e62f56c61ba34b46a9051f731c2d0418
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e62f56c61ba34b46a9051f731c2d04182021-11-08T02:35:39ZThe Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis2314-614110.1155/2021/9498029https://doaj.org/article/e62f56c61ba34b46a9051f731c2d04182021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/9498029https://doaj.org/toc/2314-6141Background. Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2020. A strategy whose effectiveness in curtailing COVID-19 was yet to be determined. We, therefore, sought to study the impact of the lockdown in reducing the incidence of COVID-19. Methods. Daily cases of COVID-19 that occurred in China which were registered between January 12th and March 30th, 2020, were extracted from the Johns Hopkins CSSE team COVID-19 ArcGIS® dashboards. Daily cases reported were used as data points in the series. Two interrupted series models were run: one with an interruption point of 23 January 2020 (model 1) and the other with a 14-day deferred interruption point of 6th February (model 2). For both models, the magnitude of change (before and after) and linear trend analyses were measured, and β-coefficients reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the precision. Results. Seventy-eight data points were used in the analysis. There was an 11% versus a 163% increase in daily cases in models 1 and 2, respectively, in the preintervention periods (p≤0.001). Comparing the period immediately following the intervention points to the counterfactual, there was a daily increase of 2,746% (p<0.001) versus a decline of 207% (p=0.802) in model 2. However, in both scenarios, there was a statistically significant drop in the daily cases predicted for this data and beyond when comparing the preintervention periods and postintervention periods (p<0.001). Conclusion. There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.Mooketsi MolefiJohn T. TlhakaneloThabo PhologoloShimeles G. HamdaTiny MasupeBilly TsimaVincent SetlhareYohana MashallaDouglas J. WiebeHindawi LimitedarticleMedicineRENBioMed Research International, Vol 2021 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R
spellingShingle	Medicine R Mooketsi Molefi John T. Tlhakanelo Thabo Phologolo Shimeles G. Hamda Tiny Masupe Billy Tsima Vincent Setlhare Yohana Mashalla Douglas J. Wiebe The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
description	Background. Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2020. A strategy whose effectiveness in curtailing COVID-19 was yet to be determined. We, therefore, sought to study the impact of the lockdown in reducing the incidence of COVID-19. Methods. Daily cases of COVID-19 that occurred in China which were registered between January 12th and March 30th, 2020, were extracted from the Johns Hopkins CSSE team COVID-19 ArcGIS® dashboards. Daily cases reported were used as data points in the series. Two interrupted series models were run: one with an interruption point of 23 January 2020 (model 1) and the other with a 14-day deferred interruption point of 6th February (model 2). For both models, the magnitude of change (before and after) and linear trend analyses were measured, and β-coefficients reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the precision. Results. Seventy-eight data points were used in the analysis. There was an 11% versus a 163% increase in daily cases in models 1 and 2, respectively, in the preintervention periods (p≤0.001). Comparing the period immediately following the intervention points to the counterfactual, there was a daily increase of 2,746% (p<0.001) versus a decline of 207% (p=0.802) in model 2. However, in both scenarios, there was a statistically significant drop in the daily cases predicted for this data and beyond when comparing the preintervention periods and postintervention periods (p<0.001). Conclusion. There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.
format	article
author	Mooketsi Molefi John T. Tlhakanelo Thabo Phologolo Shimeles G. Hamda Tiny Masupe Billy Tsima Vincent Setlhare Yohana Mashalla Douglas J. Wiebe
author_facet	Mooketsi Molefi John T. Tlhakanelo Thabo Phologolo Shimeles G. Hamda Tiny Masupe Billy Tsima Vincent Setlhare Yohana Mashalla Douglas J. Wiebe
author_sort	Mooketsi Molefi
title	The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
title_short	The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
title_full	The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
title_fullStr	The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
title_full_unstemmed	The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
title_sort	impact of china’s lockdown policy on the incidence of covid-19: an interrupted time series analysis
publisher	Hindawi Limited
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e62f56c61ba34b46a9051f731c2d0418
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The Impact of China’s Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

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