Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling

Abstract Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population...

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Autores principales:	Madhav Erraguntla, Darpit Dave, Josef Zapletal, Kevin Myles, Zach N. Adelman, Tyler D. Pohlenz, Mark Lawley
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e6e8e1ad67f545708431fc6fc9bab581
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e6e8e1ad67f545708431fc6fc9bab5812021-12-02T18:48:23ZPredictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling10.1038/s41598-021-98316-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e6e8e1ad67f545708431fc6fc9bab5812021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98316-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R2 value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.Madhav ErraguntlaDarpit DaveJosef ZapletalKevin MylesZach N. AdelmanTyler D. PohlenzMark LawleyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Madhav Erraguntla Darpit Dave Josef Zapletal Kevin Myles Zach N. Adelman Tyler D. Pohlenz Mark Lawley Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
description	Abstract Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R2 value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.
format	article
author	Madhav Erraguntla Darpit Dave Josef Zapletal Kevin Myles Zach N. Adelman Tyler D. Pohlenz Mark Lawley
author_facet	Madhav Erraguntla Darpit Dave Josef Zapletal Kevin Myles Zach N. Adelman Tyler D. Pohlenz Mark Lawley
author_sort	Madhav Erraguntla
title	Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
title_short	Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
title_full	Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
title_fullStr	Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
title_full_unstemmed	Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
title_sort	predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e6e8e1ad67f545708431fc6fc9bab581
work_keys_str_mv	AT madhaverraguntla predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling AT darpitdave predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling AT josefzapletal predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling AT kevinmyles predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling AT zachnadelman predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling AT tylerdpohlenz predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling AT marklawley predictivemodelformicroclimatictemperatureanditsuseinmosquitopopulationmodeling
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Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling

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