Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe

Abstract Landslides are frequently triggered by extreme meteorological events which has led to concern and debate about their activity in a future greenhouse climate. It is also hypothesized that dry spells preceding triggering rainfall may increase slope predisposition to sliding, especially in the...

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Autores principales:	Radek Tichavský, Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas, Karel Šilhán, Radim Tolasz, Markus Stoffel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e7783637486e46ce877985528f28c84b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e7783637486e46ce877985528f28c84b2021-12-02T15:08:07ZDry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe10.1038/s41598-019-51148-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e7783637486e46ce877985528f28c84b2019-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-51148-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Landslides are frequently triggered by extreme meteorological events which has led to concern and debate about their activity in a future greenhouse climate. It is also hypothesized that dry spells preceding triggering rainfall may increase slope predisposition to sliding, especially in the case of clay-rich soils. Here we combined dendrogeomorphic time series of landslides and climatic records to test the possible role of dry spells and extreme downpours on process activity in the Outer Western Carpathians (Central Europe). To this end, we tested time series of past frequencies and return periods of landslide reactivations at the regional scale with a Generalized Linear Mixed (GLM) model to explore linkages between landslide occurrences and triggering climate variables. Results show that landslide reactivations are concentrated during years in which spring and summer precipitation sums were significantly higher than usual, and that triggering mechanisms vary between different types of landslides (i.e. complex, shallow or flow-like). The GLM model also points to the susceptibility of landslide bodies to the combined occurrence of long, dry spells followed by large precipitation. Such situations are likely to increase in frequency in the future as climate models predict an enhancement of heatwaves and dry spells in future summers, that would be interrupted by less frequent, yet more intense storms, especially also in mountain regions.Radek TichavskýJuan Antonio Ballesteros-CánovasKarel ŠilhánRadim TolaszMarkus StoffelNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Radek Tichavský Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas Karel Šilhán Radim Tolasz Markus Stoffel Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe
description	Abstract Landslides are frequently triggered by extreme meteorological events which has led to concern and debate about their activity in a future greenhouse climate. It is also hypothesized that dry spells preceding triggering rainfall may increase slope predisposition to sliding, especially in the case of clay-rich soils. Here we combined dendrogeomorphic time series of landslides and climatic records to test the possible role of dry spells and extreme downpours on process activity in the Outer Western Carpathians (Central Europe). To this end, we tested time series of past frequencies and return periods of landslide reactivations at the regional scale with a Generalized Linear Mixed (GLM) model to explore linkages between landslide occurrences and triggering climate variables. Results show that landslide reactivations are concentrated during years in which spring and summer precipitation sums were significantly higher than usual, and that triggering mechanisms vary between different types of landslides (i.e. complex, shallow or flow-like). The GLM model also points to the susceptibility of landslide bodies to the combined occurrence of long, dry spells followed by large precipitation. Such situations are likely to increase in frequency in the future as climate models predict an enhancement of heatwaves and dry spells in future summers, that would be interrupted by less frequent, yet more intense storms, especially also in mountain regions.
format	article
author	Radek Tichavský Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas Karel Šilhán Radim Tolasz Markus Stoffel
author_facet	Radek Tichavský Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas Karel Šilhán Radim Tolasz Markus Stoffel
author_sort	Radek Tichavský
title	Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe
title_short	Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe
title_full	Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe
title_fullStr	Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe
title_full_unstemmed	Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe
title_sort	dry spells and extreme precipitation are the main trigger of landslides in central europe
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/e7783637486e46ce877985528f28c84b
work_keys_str_mv	AT radektichavsky dryspellsandextremeprecipitationarethemaintriggeroflandslidesincentraleurope AT juanantonioballesteroscanovas dryspellsandextremeprecipitationarethemaintriggeroflandslidesincentraleurope AT karelsilhan dryspellsandextremeprecipitationarethemaintriggeroflandslidesincentraleurope AT radimtolasz dryspellsandextremeprecipitationarethemaintriggeroflandslidesincentraleurope AT markusstoffel dryspellsandextremeprecipitationarethemaintriggeroflandslidesincentraleurope
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Dry Spells and Extreme Precipitation are The Main Trigger of Landslides in Central Europe

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