Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country

Abstract We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it el...

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Autores principales:	Nick Wilson, Michael G. Baker, Tony Blakely, Martin Eichner
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e7f7b6b59e4f42edab95b2ec0cbdaf74
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e7f7b6b59e4f42edab95b2ec0cbdaf742021-12-02T14:49:24ZEstimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country10.1038/s41598-021-89807-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e7f7b6b59e4f42edab95b2ec0cbdaf742021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89807-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.Nick WilsonMichael G. BakerTony BlakelyMartin EichnerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Nick Wilson Michael G. Baker Tony Blakely Martin Eichner Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country
description	Abstract We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.
format	article
author	Nick Wilson Michael G. Baker Tony Blakely Martin Eichner
author_facet	Nick Wilson Michael G. Baker Tony Blakely Martin Eichner
author_sort	Nick Wilson
title	Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country
title_short	Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country
title_full	Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country
title_fullStr	Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country
title_sort	estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of covid-19 associated with air travel into a covid-19-free country
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e7f7b6b59e4f42edab95b2ec0cbdaf74
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Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country

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