Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds

Abstract Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and p...

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Autores principales:	Dan Fu, Ping Chang, Christina M. Patricola
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/e8509dbcbac542738a7f0ed6aca621c0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e8509dbcbac542738a7f0ed6aca621c02021-12-02T11:50:57ZIntrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds10.1038/s41598-017-01962-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e8509dbcbac542738a7f0ed6aca621c02017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01962-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and prediction of ENP TCs. Patricia’s intensity and the active 2015 ENP hurricane season have been partially attributed to the strong El Niño in 2015, however there is still a lack of fundamental understanding of the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENP TCs. Here, we demonstrate that ENSO drives intrabasin variability of ENP TCs, with enhanced (reduced) TC frequency in the western portion of the ENP during El Niño (La Niña), but reduced (enhanced) TC frequency in the eastern nearshore area, where landfalling TCs preferentially form. This intrabasin difference is primarily driven by the Central American Gap Winds (CAGW), which intensify (weaken) during El Niño (La Niña), producing low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) relative vorticity anomalies and thus an unfavorable (favorable) environment for TC genesis. These findings shed new light on the dynamics linking ENP TC activity to ENSO, and highlight the importance of improving CAGW representation in models to make skillful seasonal forecasts of ENP TCs.Dan FuPing ChangChristina M. PatricolaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Dan Fu Ping Chang Christina M. Patricola Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds
description	Abstract Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and prediction of ENP TCs. Patricia’s intensity and the active 2015 ENP hurricane season have been partially attributed to the strong El Niño in 2015, however there is still a lack of fundamental understanding of the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENP TCs. Here, we demonstrate that ENSO drives intrabasin variability of ENP TCs, with enhanced (reduced) TC frequency in the western portion of the ENP during El Niño (La Niña), but reduced (enhanced) TC frequency in the eastern nearshore area, where landfalling TCs preferentially form. This intrabasin difference is primarily driven by the Central American Gap Winds (CAGW), which intensify (weaken) during El Niño (La Niña), producing low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) relative vorticity anomalies and thus an unfavorable (favorable) environment for TC genesis. These findings shed new light on the dynamics linking ENP TC activity to ENSO, and highlight the importance of improving CAGW representation in models to make skillful seasonal forecasts of ENP TCs.
format	article
author	Dan Fu Ping Chang Christina M. Patricola
author_facet	Dan Fu Ping Chang Christina M. Patricola
author_sort	Dan Fu
title	Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds
title_short	Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds
title_full	Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds
title_fullStr	Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds
title_full_unstemmed	Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds
title_sort	intrabasin variability of east pacific tropical cyclones during enso regulated by central american gap winds
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/e8509dbcbac542738a7f0ed6aca621c0
work_keys_str_mv	AT danfu intrabasinvariabilityofeastpacifictropicalcyclonesduringensoregulatedbycentralamericangapwinds AT pingchang intrabasinvariabilityofeastpacifictropicalcyclonesduringensoregulatedbycentralamericangapwinds AT christinampatricola intrabasinvariabilityofeastpacifictropicalcyclonesduringensoregulatedbycentralamericangapwinds
_version_	1718395197536075776

Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds

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